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The behavior of real exchange rates: the case of Japan

  • Chang, Ming Jen
  • Lin, Chang Ching
  • Yin, Shou-Yung

The study examines the convergence rate of mean reversion by contrasting the estimated half-life of real exchange rate (RER). We employ an extensive monthly consumer price index (CPI)-based product price’s panel for Japan (the U.S. as the num´eraire). We find that the disaggregated RERs are persistent due to the cross-sectional dependence problems. By controlling common correlated effects, the estimated half-life for all goods may fall to as low as 2.54 years, below the consensus view of 3 to 5 years summarized by Rogoff (1996). After correcting the small-sample bias, the estimated half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) increase by 1.03 year. Our findings also support that the half-life of mean reversion of RER is about 3.55 years for traded goods, about 0.11 year lower than non-traded goods. We also show that traded goods and non-traded goods perform distinct distributions of persistence.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 35447.

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Date of creation: 10 Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35447
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  1. Shiu-Sheng Chen & Charles Engel, 2005. "Does 'Aggregation Bias' Explain The Ppp Puzzle?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 49-72, 02.
  2. David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "A Prism into the PPP Puzzles: The Micro-foundations of Big Mac Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 10074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "Persistence in Law-of-One-Price Deviations: Evidence from Micro-data," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000311, UCLA Department of Economics.
  4. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni & Ilian Mihov, 2009. "Sticky Prices and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Disaggregated US Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 350-84, March.
  5. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morton O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2002. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 9372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Frees, Edward W., 1995. "Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 393-414, October.
  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Deviations from the Law of One Price in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2275, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Chi-Young Choi & Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Unbiased Estimation of the Half-Life to PPP Convergence in Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 10614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Rossi, Barbara, 2005. "Confidence Intervals for Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 432-442, October.
  11. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  12. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2005. "Do Panels Help Solve the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 410-415, October.
  14. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  15. Burstein, Ariel T. & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 2003. "Distribution costs and real exchange rate dynamics during exchange-rate-based stabilizations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1189-1214, September.
  16. J. A. Hausman, 1976. "Specification Tests in Econometrics," Working papers 185, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  17. M. Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2009. "Aggregation is not the solution: the PPP puzzle strikes back," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 875-894.
  18. Nagayasu, Jun & Inakura, Noriko, 2009. "PPP: Further evidence from Japanese regional data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 419-427, June.
  19. Robertson, Raymond & Kumar, Anil & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity and aggregation bias for a developing country: The case of Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 237-243, November.
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