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The behavior of real exchange rates: the case of Japan

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  • Chang, Ming Jen
  • Lin, Chang Ching
  • Yin, Shou-Yung

Abstract

The study examines the convergence rate of mean reversion by contrasting the estimated half-life of real exchange rate (RER). We employ an extensive monthly consumer price index (CPI)-based product price’s panel for Japan (the U.S. as the num´eraire). We find that the disaggregated RERs are persistent due to the cross-sectional dependence problems. By controlling common correlated effects, the estimated half-life for all goods may fall to as low as 2.54 years, below the consensus view of 3 to 5 years summarized by Rogoff (1996). After correcting the small-sample bias, the estimated half-life of deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) increase by 1.03 year. Our findings also support that the half-life of mean reversion of RER is about 3.55 years for traded goods, about 0.11 year lower than non-traded goods. We also show that traded goods and non-traded goods perform distinct distributions of persistence.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Ming Jen & Lin, Chang Ching & Yin, Shou-Yung, 2011. "The behavior of real exchange rates: the case of Japan," MPRA Paper 35447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:35447
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    2. Ming-Jen Chang, 2016. "Half-Life Deviations From Purchasing Power Parity: Evidence From Pacific Rim Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-20, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Common correlated effect; cross-sectional dependence; purchasing power parity; real exchange rate; traded and non-traded goods;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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