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International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Binder, Michael
  • Offermanns, Christian J.

Abstract

In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country's international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country's net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country's effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: a dynamic panel analysis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdp1:6144
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/19700/1/200723dkp.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hashem Pesaran & Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan Timmermann, 2007. "Learning, Structural Instability, and Present Value Calculations," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 253-288.
    2. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. repec:rus:hseeco:318682 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Saadaoui, Jamel, 2015. "Global imbalances: Should we use fundamental equilibrium exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 383-398.
    2. Tiago V. De V. Cavalcanti & Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2015. "Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 857-873, September.
    3. Markus Eberhardt & Francis Teal, "undated". "Aggregation versus Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Discussion Papers 11/08, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    4. Asongu, Simplice & El Montasser, Ghassen & Toumi, Hassen, 2015. "Testing the Relationships between Energy Consumption, CO2 emissions and Economic Growth in 24 African Countries: a Panel ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 69442, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Georgiadis, Georgios, 2014. "Towards an explanation of cross-country asymmetries in monetary transmission," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 66-84.
    6. Albuquerque Bruno & Baumann Ursel & Krustev Georgi, 2015. "US household deleveraging following the Great Recession – a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-53, January.
    7. Sascha S. Becker, 2011. "What Drives the Relationship Between Inflation and Price Dispersion? Market Power vs. Price Rigidity," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2011-019, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate Determination; International Financial Integration; Dynamic Panel Data Models;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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