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Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models

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  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele
  • Kolasa, Marcin
  • Rubaszek, Michał

Abstract

We run a real exchange rate forecasting "horse race", which highlights that two principles hold. First, forecasts should not replicate the high volatility of exchange rates observed in sample. Second, models should exploit the mean reversion of the real exchange rate over long horizons. Abiding by these principles, an open-economy DSGE model performs well in real exchange rate forecasting. However, it fails to forecast nominal exchange rates better than the random walk. We find that the root cause is its inability to predict domestic and foreign inflation. This shortcoming leads us toward simpler ways to outperform the random walk. JEL Classification: C32, F31, F37

Suggested Citation

  • Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2016. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1905, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161905
    Note: 343031
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    Cited by:

    1. Michał Rubaszek, 2019. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2019_024, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    2. Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2018. "Does the foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 809-821.
    3. Georgios Georgiadis & Martina Jancokova, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2017_008, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    4. Tomosk, Steve & Haysom, Joan E. & Wright, David, 2017. "Quantifying economic risk in photovoltaic power projects," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 422-433.
    5. Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wei, Yunjie, 2019. "A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 49-58.
    6. Michał Rubaszek & Paweł Skrzypczyński & Grzegorz Koloch, 2010. "Forecasting the Polish Zloty with Non-Linear Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(2), pages 151-167, March.
    7. Heni Boubaker & Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Long-Memory Modeling and Forecasting: Evidence from the U.S. Historical Series of Inflation," Working Papers 201869, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Eichenbaum, Martin & Johannsen, Benjamin & Rebelo, S�rgio, 2017. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Mijakovic, Andrej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Cap, Adam, 2020. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Working Paper Series 2358, European Central Bank.
    10. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95, April.
    12. Chung-Fu Lai, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 8(10), pages 1257-1273, October.
    13. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "Evaluating the forecasting accuracy of the closed- and open economy New Keynesian DSGE models," Dynare Working Papers 59, CEPREMAP.
    14. Adrian Marek Burda & Blazej Mazur & Mateusz Pawel Pipien, 2017. "Forecasting EUR/PLN Exchange Rate: the Role of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in ESTVEC Models," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 97-114.
    15. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: A survey," CAMA Working Papers 2017-76, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Rubaszek, Michał & Karolak, Zuzanna & Kwas, Marek, 2020. "Mean-reversion, non-linearities and the dynamics of industrial metal prices. A forecasting perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rates; forecasting; mean reversion; new open economy macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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