IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates

  • Rebecca L Driver
  • Peter F Westaway

This paper explains what is meant by the concept of equilibrium exchange rates. It argues that a variety of equilibrium exchange rates can be defined and their behaviour will vary according to different definitions of the exchange rate, and over short, medium and long-term horizons. It emphasises that the relevance of each type will depend on the question at hand. The behaviour of different measures of the equilibrium exchange rate is explained with reference to a range of theoretical models. The paper explicitly addresses the circumstances under which purchasing power parity, a commonly adopted benchmark for long-run exchange rate movements, is appropriate. The most important purpose of the paper is to provide a taxonomy of the different empirical measures of equilibrium exchange rates that have been derived in the literature. It offers a comprehensive guide to the bewildering array of related acronyms that has sprung up and explains the different contexts in which different equilibrium measures might prove informative.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2004/WP248.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 248.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:248
Contact details of provider: Postal: Publications Group Bank of England Threadneedle Street London EC2R 8AH
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 9118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rogers, J.H. & Jenkins, M.A., 1993. "Haircuts or Hysteresis? Sources of Movements in Real Exchange Rates," Papers 4-93-6, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
  5. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Devereux, Michael B. & Engel, Charles, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through, exchange rate volatility, and exchange rate disconnect," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 913-940, July.
  7. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: a Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange?," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-23, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  10. Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Papers 4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  11. Jan Hansen & Werner Roeger, 2000. "Estimation of real equilibrium exchange rates," European Economy - Economic Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  12. Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "Evaluating Blueprints for the Conduct of International Macro Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 264-69, May.
  13. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn, 1995. "Integration, cointegration and the forecast consistency of structural exchange rate models," International Finance 9508002, EconWPA.
  14. Gianluca Benigno & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium exchange rates and supply-side performance," Bank of England working papers 156, Bank of England.
  15. Ian Marsh & Menzie Chinn & Yin-Wong Cheung, 1999. "How do UK-Based Foreign Exchange Dealers Think Their Market Operates?," Working Papers wp99-21, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  16. Wren-Lewis, Simon, et al, 1991. "Evaluating the U.K.'s Choice of Entry Rate into the ERM," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 59(0), pages 1-22, Supplemen.
  17. MacDonald, Ronald, 1996. "Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 7-11, January.
  18. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  19. Charles Engel, 1992. "Real Exchange Rates and Relative Prices: An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 4231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Reuven Glick & Paul Bergin, 2003. "Endogenous Nontradability and Macroeconomic Implications," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 106, Society for Computational Economics.
  21. Katarina Juselius & Ronald MacDonald, 2000. "International Parity Relationships between Germany and the United States: A Joint Modelling Approach," Discussion Papers 00-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  22. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  23. Christensen, Michael, 2000. "Uncovered Interest Parity and Policy Behavior New Evidence," Finance Working Papers 00-2, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  24. Ronald MacDonald, 1995. "Long-Run Exchange Rate Modeling: A Survey of the Recent Evidence," IMF Working Papers 95/14, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
  26. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  27. Currie, David & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 1989. "An appraisal of alternative blueprints for international policy coordination," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1769-1785, December.
  28. Murray, Christian J. & Papell, David H., 2002. "The purchasing power parity persistence paradigm," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-19, January.
  29. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  30. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  31. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  32. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-112, University of California at Berkeley.
  33. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
  34. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca L Driver, 2003. "Current accounts, net foreign assets and the implications of cyclical factors," Bank of England working papers 173, Bank of England.
  35. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John, 1991. "The predictability of real exchange rate changes in the short and long run," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 17-38, April.
  36. Vincent Koen & Laurence Boone & Alain de Serres & Nicola Fuchs, 2001. "Tracking the Euro," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 298, OECD Publishing.
  37. Jonathan Haskel & Holger Wolf, 2001. "The Law of One Price - A Case Study," NBER Working Papers 8112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  38. Olivier Jeanne & Andrew K. Rose, 2002. "Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 537-569, May.
  39. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  40. Nikola Dvornak & Marion Kohler & Gordon Menzies, 2003. "Australia’s Medium-run Exchange Rate: A Macroeconomic Balance Approach," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  41. Groen, Jan J. J., 2000. "The monetary exchange rate model as a long-run phenomenon," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 299-319, December.
  42. Enrique Alberola & Susana G. Cervero & Humberto Lopez & Angel Ubide, 2000. "Global Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Euro, Dollar, "Ins," "Outs," and Other Major Currencies in a Panel Cointegration Framework," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0051, Econometric Society.
  43. Christensen, Michael, 2000. "Uncovered interest parity and policy behavior: new evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 81-87, October.
  44. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana Maria, 1997. "New panel unit root tests of PPP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 17-22, November.
  45. Ronald Macdonald & Mark P. Taylor, 1992. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 1-57, March.
  46. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
  47. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December.
  48. Krugman, Paul, 2000. "How Complicated Does the Model Have to Be?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 33-42, Winter.
  49. Detken, Carsten & Dieppe, Alistair & Henry, Jérôme & Marin, Carmen & Smets, Frank, 2002. "Model uncertainty and the equilibrium value of the real effective euro exchange rate," Working Paper Series 0160, European Central Bank.
  50. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  51. Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
  52. Bergin, Paul R., 2003. "Putting the 'New Open Economy Macroeconomics' to a test," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-34, May.
  53. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-381116 is not listed on IDEAS
  54. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. "Concepts to Calculate Equilibrium Exchange Rates: An Overview," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  56. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  57. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  59. Williamson, John, 1993. "Exchange Rate Management," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 188-97, January.
  60. Finn, Mary G., 1999. "An equilibrium theory of nominal and real exchange rate comovement," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 453-475, December.
  61. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
  62. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  63. Anne-Marie Brook & David Hargreaves, 2000. "A macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand's equilibrium exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.