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PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data

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  • Georgios E. Chortareas
  • Rebecca L. Driver

Abstract

This paper examines the evidence for two of the relationships that underpin (explicitly or implicitly) much of international macroeconomics. The first is purchasing power parity (PPP), or the hypothesis that there exists a constant long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. The second establishes a relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. The tests are conducted on a panel of 18 OECD economies using the United States as a numeraire for the post-Bretton Woods era. The results are obtained using new non-stationary panel estimation techniques, which significantly increase the power of the tests. All the tests suggest that there is little evidence supporting PPP when it is tested directly. This contrasts with earlier panel data studies, which tended to find that the real exchange rate was stationary. The results supporting a long-run relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials appear to be more positive. This again provides a contrast with earlier results, which tended to find no evidence of cointegration. Such studies concentrated on G7 economies. To investigate this further the panel was split into two groups: the G7 and eleven small open economies. For the panel of small open economies strong evidence in favour of cointegration is found. In contrast, there is no evidence of cointegration in a panel that consists purely of the G7 economies.

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  • Georgios E. Chortareas & Rebecca L. Driver, 2001. "PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data," Bank of England working papers 138, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:138
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    2. Mathias Hoffmann & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "A Re-examination of the Link between Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rate Differentials," CESifo Working Paper Series 894, CESifo.
    3. Patrick Minford & David Peel, 2007. "On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 119-125, February.
    4. Håvard Hungnes & Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2006. "The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 209-221.
    5. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate may be Stationary after all: Evidence from Non‐linear Unit‐root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 113-131, February.
    6. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in Historical Perspective, pages 121-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Sergio Luis Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2006. "International Financial Integration through the Law of One Price," Business School Working Papers 2006-01, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    8. Hilde C Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2008. "The Commodity Currency Puzzle," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-30, May.
    9. Ian Hudson, 2016. "The Currency Carry Trade: Selection Skill or Behavioral Bias," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(9), pages 176-185, September.
    10. Pavel Trunin & Dmitriy Kniazev & Ekaterina Kuduykina, 2010. "Perspective issues in the CBR`s exchange rate policy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 144P.
    11. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
    12. Doo-Yull Choi & Bong-Han Kim & See-Won Kim, 2011. "Nonlinear mean-reversion in Southeast Asian real exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1409-1421.
    13. Mr. Abhisek Banerjee & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2006. "Testing Real Interest Parity in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2006/249, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alex Luiz Ferreira, 2004. "Are Real Interest Differentials Caused by Frictions in Goods or Assets Markets, Real or Nominal Shocks?," Studies in Economics 0407, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    15. Matthieu Bussiere & Georgios Chortareas & Rebecca Driver, 2003. "Current Accounts, Net Foreign Assets and the Implications of Cyclical Factors," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 269-286, Spring.
    16. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "The dynamic relationship between real exchange rates, real interest rates and foreign exchange reserves: empirical evidence from China," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 639-651.
    18. Ofori, Isaac Kwesi & Armah, Mark Kojo, 2021. "A re-examination of the exchange rate – interest rate differential relationship in Ghana," EconStor Preprints 233954, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Hilde Christiane Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2002. "Fundamental determinants of the long run real exchange rate: The case of Norway," Discussion Papers 326, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    20. Dorota Górecka & Dominik Sliwicki, 2009. "Application of Panel Data Models to Exchange Rates’ Modeling for Scandinavian and Central and Eastern European Countries," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 9, pages 51-60.
    21. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, 2004. "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England.
    22. Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.
    23. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2006. "PPP in the medium run: The case of Norway," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 700-719, December.
    24. Catherine S. F. Ho & M. Ariff, 2008. "The Role of Non-Parity Fundamentals in Exchange Rate Determination: Australia and the Asia Pacific Region," CARF F-Series CARF-F-125, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.

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