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Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels

  • Georgios Chortareas

    (Bank of England)

  • George Kapetanios

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Recent advances in testing for the validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) focus on the time series properties of real exchange rates in panel frameworks. One weakness of such tests, however, is that they fail to inform the researcher as to which cross-section units are stationary. As a consequence, a reservation for PPP analyses based on such tests is that a small number of real exchange rates in a given panel may drive the results. In this paper we examine the PPP hypothesis focusing on the stationarity of the real exchange rates in up to 25 OECD countries. We introduce a methodology that when applied to a set of established panel-unit-root tests, allows the identification of the real exchange rates that are stationary. We apply procedures that account for cross-sectional dependence. Our results reveal evidence of mean-reversion that is significantly stronger as compared to that obtained by the existing literature, strengthening the case for PPP. Moreover, our approach can be used to provide half-lives estimates for the mean-reverting real exchange rates. We find that the half-lives are shorter than the literature consensus and therefore that the PPP puzzle is less pronounced than initially thought.

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Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 with number 32.

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Date of creation: 17 Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc04:32
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  7. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
  9. Andrews, Donald W K & Chen, Hong-Yuan, 1994. "Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(2), pages 187-204, April.
  10. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
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  12. Chang, Yoosoon, 2002. "Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 261-292, October.
  13. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2006. "The yen real exchange rate may be stationary after all: evidence from non-linear unit root tests," Bank of England working papers 311, Bank of England.
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  20. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier.
  21. Baltagi, Badi H. & Hidalgo, Javier & Li, Qi, 1996. "A nonparametric test for poolability using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 345-367, December.
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  24. Westerlund, Joakim & Larsson, Rolf, 2009. "A Note On The Pooling Of Individual Panic Unit Root Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1851-1868, December.
  25. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "Getting PPP Right: Identifying Mean Reverting Real Exchange Rates in Panels," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 32, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
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  36. Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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