IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wpa/wuwpif/0111003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach

Author

Listed:
  • Francisco Maeso-Fernandez

    (Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain)

  • Chiara Osbat

    (European Central Bank)

  • Bernd Schnatz

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium-term determinants of the euro effective exchange rate. The empirical analysis builds on synthetic quarterly data from 1975 to 1998, and derives a Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) and a Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER). Four different model specifications are retained, due to the difficulties encountered in specifying an encompassing model. Results indicate that differentials in real interest rates and productivity, and (in some specifications) the relative fiscal stance and the real price of oil, have a significant influence on the euro effective exchange rate. Assessing the existence and the extent of the over- or undervaluation of the exchange rate is not straightforward, since these different specifications often lead to contrasting findings. However, all four models point unambiguously to the undervaluation of the euro in 2000, although the extent of this undervaluation largely depends on the specification chosen.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco Maeso-Fernandez & Chiara Osbat & Bernd Schnatz, 2001. "Determinants of the euro real effective exchange rate: a BEER/PEER approach," International Finance 0111003, EconWPA.
  • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0111003 Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC - windows NT; to print on PostScript; pages: 48; figures: included
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/if/papers/0111/0111003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Coenen & J.-L. Vega, 2001. "The demand for M3 in the euro area," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 727-748.
    2. Gropp, Reint & Kostial, Kristina, 2000. "The disappearing tax base: is foreign direct investment eroding corporate income taxes?," Working Paper Series 0031, European Central Bank.
    3. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    euro; equilibrium exchange rates; cointegration; gonzalo- granger decomposition; fundamental analysis; BEER; PEER;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0111003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA). General contact details of provider: http://econwpa.repec.org .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.