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A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates

Listed author(s):
  • Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose.

We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory power to monetary models such as the Dornbusch "overshooting" theory, in the form of reaction to "news" and in forecasts at long-run horizons. Nevertheless, at short horizons, a driftless random walk characterizes exchange rates better than standard models based on observable macroeconomic fundamentals. Unexplained large shocks to floating rates must then, logically, be due either to innovations in unobservable fundamentals, or to non-fundamental factors such as speculative bubbles. The observed difference in exchange rate and macroeconomic volatility under different nominal exchange rate regimes makes us skeptical of the first view. The theory and evidence on speculative bubbles, however, is not conclusive. We conclude with the hope that promising new studies of the microstructure of the foreign exchange market might eventually rise to insights into these phenomena.

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Paper provided by University of California at Berkeley in its series Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers with number C95-051.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 1995
Handle: RePEc:ucb:calbcd:c95-051
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  1. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Real exchange rate behavior under alternative international monetary regimes : Interwar evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 363-371, March.
  2. Papell, David H., 1988. "Expectations and exchange rate dynamics after a decade of floating," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 303-317, November.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
  4. Davutyan, Nurhan & Pippenger, John, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity Did Not Collapse during the 1970's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(5), pages 1151-1158, December.
  5. Rose, Andrew K, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity," CEPR Discussion Papers 929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Stein, Ernesto H. & Streb, Jorge M., 1998. "Political stabilization cycles in high-inflation economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 159-180, June.
  7. Beck, Stacie E., 1993. "The Ricardian equivalence proposition: evidence from foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 154-169, April.
  8. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "The Stability of the Gold Standard and the Evolution of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-040, University of California at Berkeley.
  9. Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1994. "The Internationalization of Equity Markets: Introduction," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-033, University of California at Berkeley.
  10. Batten, J. & Bhar, R., 1993. "Volume and Price Volatility in Yen Futures Markets: Within and Across Three Different Exchanges," Papers e9318, Western Sydney - School of Business And Technology.
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  12. Tamim Bayoumi and Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "One Money or Many? On Analyzing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-030, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
  14. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1979. "Policies for employment, prices, and exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, January.
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  16. MacDonald, Ronald, 1983. "Some Tests of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in the Foreign Exchange Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 30(3), pages 235-250, November.
  17. Barry Eichengreen and Beth Simmons., 1993. "International Economics and Domestic Politics: Notes on the 1920s," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-029, University of California at Berkeley.
  18. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
  19. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1986. "Are foreign exchange forecasts rational? : New evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 277-281.
  20. Niehans, Jurg, 1975. "Some doubts about the efficacy of monetary policy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 275-281, August.
  21. Diebold, Francis X & Gardeazabal, Javier & Yilmaz, Kamil, 1994. " On Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(2), pages 727-735, June.
  22. De Grauwe, Paul & Dewachter, Hans, 1990. "A Chaotic Monetary Model of the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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