IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Inventory Information

  • H. Henry Cao

    (Kenan-Flager School of Business, University of North Carolina)

  • Martin D. Evans

    (Georgetown University and National Bureau of Economic Research)

  • Richard K. Lyons

    (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, and National Bureau of Economic Research)

When information about fundamentals is symmetric, can information-based trade still arise? Consider bond and foreign exchange (FX) markets, where private information about nominal cash flows is generally absent, but participants are convinced that superior information exists. We analyze a class of asymmetric information—inventory information—that is unrelated to fundamentals but still forecasts future price (by forecasting future discount factors). We find that inventory information in FX does indeed forecast discount factors and does so over both short and long horizons. The permanent effect from inventory information ranges between 15% and 30% of that from public information.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JB790112
File Function: main text
Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Journal of Business.

Volume (Year): 79 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 325-364

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:1:p:325-364
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JB/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
  2. Thomas Ho & Hans Stoll, . "Optimal Dealer Pricing Under Transactions and Return Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 27-79, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Ho, Thomas S Y & Stoll, Hans R, 1983. " The Dynamics of Dealer Markets under Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(4), pages 1053-74, September.
  4. Dimitri Vayanos, 2001. "Strategic Trading in a Dynamic Noisy Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 131-171, 02.
  5. Jeffrey Wurgler & Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, 2000. "Does Arbitrage Flatten Demand Curves for Stocks?," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm152, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
  6. Branson, William H. & Henderson, Dale W., 1985. "The specification and influence of asset markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 15, pages 749-805 Elsevier.
  7. Vayanos, Dimitri, 1999. "Strategic Trading and Welfare in a Dynamic Market," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 219-54, April.
  8. John Y. Campbell, 1990. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Grossman, S.J. & Miller, M.H., 1988. "Liquidity And Market Structure," Papers 88, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  10. Fishman, Michael J & Longstaff, Francis A, 1992. " Dual Trading in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 643-71, June.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1994. "A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-184, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Richard K. Lyons., 1993. "Tests of Microstructural Hypotheses in the Foreign Exchange Market," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-230, University of California at Berkeley.
  14. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 1999. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 7317, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Madhavan, Ananth & Sofianos, George, 1998. "An empirical analysis of NYSE specialist trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 189-210, May.
  16. Madhavan, Ananth & Smidt, Seymour, 1991. "A Bayesian model of intraday specialist pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-134, November.
  17. Biais, Bruno, 1993. " Price Information and Equilibrium Liquidity in Fragmented and Centralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 157-85, March.
  18. Vitale, Paolo, 2000. "Speculative noise trading and manipulation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 689-712, October.
  19. Aditya Kaul & Vikas Mehrotra & Randall Morck, 2000. "Demand Curves for Stocks "Do "Slope Down: New Evidence from an Index Weights Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 893-912, 04.
  20. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June.
  21. Alan Kraus & Maxwell Smith, 1989. "Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-569, 07.
  22. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1990. "A Theory of the Interday Variations in Volume, Variance, and Trading Costs in Securities Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 593-624.
  23. Scholes, Myron S, 1972. "The Market for Securities: Substitution versus Price Pressure and the Effects of Information on Share Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(2), pages 179-211, April.
  24. Takatosh Ito & Richard K. Lyons & Michael T. Melvin, 1997. "Is there private information in the FX market? the Tokyo experiment," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 97-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  25. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Eric Swanson & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 9660, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  27. Spiegel, Matthew & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1995. " On Intraday Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 319-39, March.
  28. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  29. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
  30. Oliver Hansch & Narayan Y. Naik & S. Viswanathan, 1998. "Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1623-1656, October.
  31. HELLWIG, Martin F., . "Rational expectations equilibrium with conditioning on past prices: a mean-variance example," CORE Discussion Papers RP -480, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  32. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  33. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2002. "Currency Returns, Institutional Investor Flows, and Exchange Rate Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 9101, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Roell, Ailsa, 1990. "Dual-capacity trading and the quality of the market," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 105-124, June.
  36. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
  37. Rochet, Jean-Charles & Vila, Jean-Luc, 1994. "Insider Trading without Normality," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 131-52, January.
  38. Covrig, Vicentiu & Melvin, Michael, 2002. "Asymmetric information and price discovery in the FX market: does Tokyo know more about the yen?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 271-285, August.
  39. Kraus, Alan & Smith, Maxwell, 1989. " Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-69, July.
  40. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1981. "Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 221-235, September.
  41. Naik, Narayan Y & Neuberger, Anthony & Viswanathan, S, 1999. "Trade Disclosure Regulations in Markets with Negotiated Trades," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 873-900.
  42. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-40, April.
  43. Snell, Andy & Tonks, Ian, 1995. "Determinants of Price Quote Revisions on the London Stock Exchange," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 77-94, January.
  44. David A. Hsieh & Allan W. Kleidon, 1996. "Bid-Ask Spreads in Foreign Exchange Markets: Implications for Models of Asymmetric Information," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 41-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  45. French, Kenneth R. & Roll, Richard, 1986. "Stock return variances : The arrival of information and the reaction of traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 5-26, September.
  46. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  47. Martin D. D. Evans, 2001. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
  49. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1991. "Risk Aversion, Market Liquidity, and Price Efficiency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(3), pages 416-41.
  50. Payne, Richard, 2003. "Informed trade in spot foreign exchange markets: an empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 307-329, December.
  51. Peter C. Reiss & Ingrid M. Werner, 1998. "Does Risk Sharing Motivate Interdealer Trading?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1657-1703, October.
  52. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Wong, Clement Yuk-Pang, 2000. "A survey of market practitioners' views on exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 401-419, August.
  53. S. Viswanathan & James J. D. Wang, 2004. "Inter-Dealer Trading in Financial Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(4), pages 987-1040, October.
  54. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm-Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, 02.
  55. Ciccotello, Conrad S. & Hatheway, Frank M., 2000. "Indicating Ahead: Best Execution and the NASDAQ Preopening," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 184-212, April.
  56. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. " Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 187-211, March.
  57. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:79:y:2006:i:1:p:325-364. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Journals Division)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.