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Speculative Noise Trading and Manipulation in the Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Vitale, P.

Abstract

We investigate the possibility that in the foreign exchange market an uninformed speculator finds it convenient to trade on noise in order to gain an infromational advantage she can exploit in future. In a two-period model, we analyze the trade-off she faces between the cost of the "informational investment" and the profits this brings about. Our results give a possible explanation for the large volume of noise trading present in the foreign exchange market.

Suggested Citation

  • Vitale, P., 1997. "Speculative Noise Trading and Manipulation in the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Working Papers eco97/23, European University Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco97/23
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Palomino, Frederic, 1996. " Noise Trading in Small Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1537-1550, September.
    2. L. Menkhoff & M. Schlumberger, 1995. "Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(193), pages 189-215.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shino Takayama, 2013. "Price Manipulation, Dynamic Informed Trading and Tame Equilibria: Theory and Computation," Discussion Papers Series 492, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    2. repec:eee:intfin:v:53:y:2018:i:c:p:179-199 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. H. Henry Cao & Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Inventory Information," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 9, pages 363-413 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    5. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
    6. Martin Evans, 2014. "Forex Trading and the WMR Fix," Working Papers gueconwpa~14-14-03, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    7. repec:eee:jbfina:v:87:y:2018:i:c:p:233-247 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2005. "Feedback trading and autocorrelation interactions in the foreign exchange market: Further evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 811-827, September.
    9. Cumming, D. & Johan, S.A., 2008. "Global market surveillance," Discussion Paper 2008-002, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
    10. Lee, Eun Jung & Eom, Kyong Shik & Park, Kyung Suh, 2013. "Microstructure-based manipulation: Strategic behavior and performance of spoofing traders," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 227-252.
    11. Guo, Ming & Li, Zhan & Tu, Zhiyong, 2012. "A unique “T+1 trading rule” in China: Theory and evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 575-583.
    12. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2005. "Information Leakage and Market Efficiency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 417-457.
    13. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Hsu, Chih-Hsiang, 2016. "Strategic noise trading of later-informed traders in a multi-market framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-243.
    15. Cumming, Douglas & Johan, Sofia & Li, Dan, 2011. "Exchange trading rules and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 651-671, March.
    16. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Carol Osler & Alasdair Turnbull, 2016. "Dealer Trading at the Fix," Working Papers 101R, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School, revised Jun 2017.

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    Keywords

    TRADE;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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