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Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

Author

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  • Eichenbaum, Martin
  • Johannsen, Benjamin
  • Rebelo, S�rgio

Abstract

This paper documents two facts about the behavior of floating exchange rates in countries where monetary policy follows a Taylor-type rule. First, the current real exchange rate is highly negatively correlated with future changes in the nominal exchange rate at horizons greater than two years. This negative correlation is stronger the longer is the horizon. Second, for most countries, the real exchange rate is virtually uncorrelated with future inflation rates both in the short and in the long run. We develop a class of models that can account for these and other key observations about real and nominal exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichenbaum, Martin & Johannsen, Benjamin & Rebelo, S�rgio, 2017. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11844
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    2. Baxter, Marianne & Stockman, Alan C., 1989. "Business cycles and the exchange-rate regime : Some international evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 377-400, May.
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    1. repec:agr:journl:v:xxiv:y:2017:i:2(611):p:99-110 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency forecasting; Taylor rule;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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