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Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates

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  • Martin Eichenbaum
  • Benjamin K. Johannsen
  • Sergio Rebelo

Abstract

This paper studies how the monetary policy regime affects the relative importance of nominal exchange rates and inflation rates in shaping the response of real exchange rates to shocks. We document two facts about inflation-targeting countries. First, the current real exchange rate predicts future changes in the nominal exchange rate. Second, the real exchange rate is a poor predictor of future inflation rates. We estimate a medium-size DSGE open-economy model that accounts quantitatively for these facts as well as other empirical properties of real and nominal exchange rates. The key estimated shocks that accounts for the dynamics of exchange rates and their covariance with inflation are disturbances to the foreign demand for dollar-denominated bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Eichenbaum & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Sergio Rebelo, 2017. "Monetary Policy and the Predictability of Nominal Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 23158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23158
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    Cited by:

    1. Raheem, Ibrahim, 2020. "Global financial cycles and exchange rate forecast: A factor analysis," MPRA Paper 105358, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tamas Z. Csabafi & Max Gillman & Ruthira Naraidoo, 2019. "International Business Cycle and Financial Intermediation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2293-2303, December.
    3. Curran, Michael & Velic, Adnan, 2019. "Real exchange rate persistence and country characteristics: A global analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 35-56.
    4. Claire Giordano, 2021. "How frequent a BEER? Assessing the impact of data frequency on real exchange rate misalignment estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 365-404, July.
    5. Mădălina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Constantin ANGHELACHE & Ana CARP, 2017. "The main correlations between the monetary-banking indicators," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(611), S), pages 99-110, Summer.
    6. Mijakovic, Andrej & Rubaszek, Michał & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Cap, Adam, 2020. "The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rate models," Working Paper Series 2358, European Central Bank.
    7. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    8. Ferrari, Massimo & Mehl, Arnaud & Stracca, Livio, 2020. "Central bank digital currency in an open economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 15335, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Moran, Kevin & Nono, Simplice Aimé, 2018. "Gradual learning about shocks and the forward premium puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 79-100.
    10. Martin Eichenbaum & Benjamin Johannsen & Sergio Rebelo, 2018. "Understanding the Volatility of the Canadian Exchange Rate," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 502, February.
    11. Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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