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Learning, Structural Instability and Present Value Calculations

  • Hashem Pesaran
  • Davide Pettenuzzo
  • Allan Timmermann

Present value calculations require predictions of cash flows both at near and distant future points in time. Such predictions are generally surrounded by considerable uncertainty and may critically depend on assumptions about parameter values as well as the form and stability of the data generating process underlying the cash flows. This paper presents new theoretical results for the existence of the infinite sum of discounted expected future values under uncertainty about the parameters characterizing the growth rate of the cash flow process. Furthermore, we explore the consequences for present values of relaxing the stability assumption in a way that allows for past and future breaks to the underlying cash flow process. We find that such breaks can lead to considerable changes in present values.

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Paper provided by Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR) in its series IEPR Working Papers with number 06.42.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:scp:wpaper:06-42
Contact details of provider: Phone: (213) 740-3521
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Web page: http://www.usc.edu/dept/LAS/economics/IEPR/

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  1. Pesaran, M.H. & Pettenuzzo, D. & Timmermann, A., 2004. "‘Forecasting Time Series Subject to Multiple Structural Breaks’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0433, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
  3. Llubos Pástor, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, 08.
  4. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  6. Gary Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Prior Elicitation in Multiple Change-point Models," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/26, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0164, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Allan Timmermann, 1998. "Structural Breaks, Incomplete Information and Stock Prices," FMG Discussion Papers dp311, Financial Markets Group.
  9. Geweke, John, 2001. "A note on some limitations of CRRA utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 341-345, June.
  10. René Garcia & Pierre Perron, 1995. "An Analysis of the Real Interest Rate Under Regime Shifts," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-05, CIRANO.
  11. Gary M. Koop & Simon M. Potter, 2004. "Forecasting and Estimating Multiple Change-point Models with an Unknown Number of Change-points," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/31, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  12. Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 1998. "Forecasting economic processes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 111-131, March.
  13. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521634809 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
  16. David Cass & Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Individual Saving, Aggregate Capital Accumulation, and Efficient Growth," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 198, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  17. Robert J. Barro, 2005. "Rare Events and the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 11310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December.
  19. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
  20. Timmermann, Allan G, 1993. "How Learning in Financial Markets Generates Excess Volatility and Predictability in Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 1135-45, November.
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