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International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: A dynamic panel analysis

  • Binder, Michael
  • Offermanns, Christian J.
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    In this paper we revisit medium- to long-run exchange rate determination, focusing on the role of international investment positions. To do so, we develop a new econometric framework accounting for conditional long-run homogeneity in heterogeneous dynamic panel data models. In particular, in our model the long-run relationship between effective exchange rates and domestic as well as weighted foreign prices is a homogeneous function of a country’s international investment position. We find rather strong support for purchasing power parity in environments of limited negative net foreign asset to GDP positions, but not outside such environments. We thus argue that the purchasing power parity hypothesis holds conditionally, but not unconditionally, and that international investment positions are an essential component to characterizing this conditionality. Finally, we adduce evidence that whether deterioration of a country’s net foreign asset to GDP position leads to a depreciation of that country’s effective exchange rate depends on its rate of inflation relative to the rate of inflation abroad as well as its exposure to global shocks.

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    Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2007/23.

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    Date of creation: 2007
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200723
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    1. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Jorg Breitung, 2005. "A Parametric approach to the Estimation of Cointegration Vectors in Panel Data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 151-173.
    3. Peel, David & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Towards a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2658, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt12z9x4c5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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    7. Michele Cavallo & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 505, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2002.
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    9. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
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    14. Philip R. Lane & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970–2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.
    15. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
    16. Joakim Westerlund, 2005. "New Simple Tests for Panel Cointegration," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(3), pages 297-316.
    17. Offermanns, Christian J. & Pramor, Marcus, 2007. "The CFS international capital flow database: A user's guide," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/24, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    18. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521586115 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2005. "Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1603-1635, August.
    21. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521355643 is not listed on IDEAS
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