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Common breaks in means and variances for panel data

  • Bai, Jushan

This paper establishes the consistency of the estimated common break point in panel data. Consistency is obtainable even when a regime contains a single observation, making it possible to quickly identify the onset of a new regime. We also propose a new framework for developing the limiting distribution for the estimated break point, and show how to construct confidence intervals. The least squares method is used for estimating breaks in means and the quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) method is used to estimate breaks in means and in variances. QML is shown to be more efficient than the least squares even if there is no change in the variances.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 157 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (July)
Pages: 78-92

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:157:y:2010:i:1:p:78-92
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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  1. Stefan de Wachter & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "Detection of Structural Breaks in Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers 505, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  3. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
  4. De Wachter, Stefan & Tzavalis, Elias, 2005. "Monte Carlo comparison of model and moment selection and classical inference approaches to break detection in panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 91-96, July.
  5. Christopher H. Jackson & Linda D. Sharples, 2004. "Models for longitudinal data with censored changepoints," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 53(1), pages 149-162.
  6. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  7. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
  8. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July.
  9. Lawrence Joseph & David Wolfson, 1993. "Maximum likelihood estimation in the multi-path change-point problem," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 511-530, September.
  10. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
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