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Estimating structural changes in regression quantiles

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  • Oka, Tatsushi
  • Qu, Zhongjun

Abstract

This paper considers the estimation of multiple structural changes occurring at unknown dates in one or multiple conditional quantile functions. The analysis covers time series models as well as models with repeated cross-sections. We estimate the break dates and other parameters jointly by minimizing the check function over all permissible break dates. The limiting distribution of the estimator is derived and the coverage property of the resulting confidence interval is assessed via simulations. A procedure to determine the number of breaks is also discussed. Empirical applications to the quarterly US real GDP growth rate and the underage drunk driving data suggest that the method can deliver more informative results than the analysis of the conditional mean function alone.

Suggested Citation

  • Oka, Tatsushi & Qu, Zhongjun, 2011. "Estimating structural changes in regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 248-267, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:162:y:2011:i:2:p:248-267
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    Cited by:

    1. Tang, Yanlin & Song, Xinyuan & Zhu, Zhongyi, 2015. "Threshold effect test in censored quantile regression," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 149-156.
    2. Pierre Perron & Tatsushi Oka, 2011. "Testing for Common Breaks in a Multiple Equations System," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-057, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    3. Liwen Zhang & Huixia Judy Wang & Zhongyi Zhu, 2017. "Composite change point estimation for bent line quantile regression," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 69(1), pages 145-168, February.
    4. Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta & Giovanni Bonaccolto, 2017. "The US real GNP is trend-stationary after all," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 510-514, May.
    5. Kuriyama Nina, 2016. "Testing cointegration in quantile regressions with an application to the term structure of interest rates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 107-121, April.
    6. Wolters Maik H. & Tillmann Peter, 2015. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: a quantile regression approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 161-182, April.
    7. Venkata Jandhyala & Stergios Fotopoulos & Ian MacNeill & Pengyu Liu, 2013. "Inference for single and multiple change-points in time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 423-446, July.
    8. Zhanfeng Wang & Wenxin Liu & Yuanyuan Lin, 2015. "A change-point problem in relative error-based regression," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(4), pages 835-856, December.
    9. Wolters, Maik H., 2012. "Estimating monetary policy reaction functions using quantile regressions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 342-361.
    10. Sahbi FARHANI, 2012. "Tests of Parameters Instability: Theoretical Study and Empirical Analysis on Two Types of Models (ARMA Model and Market Model)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 246-266.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Charl Jooste & Omid Ranjbar, 2015. "The Changing Dynamics of South Africa's Inflation Persistence: Evidence from a Quantile Regression Framework," Working Papers 201563, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Christian Bauer & Sebastian Weber, 2016. "The Efficiency of Monetary Policy when Guiding Inflation Expectations," Research Papers in Economics 2016-14, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    13. Qu, Zhongjun & Yoon, Jungmo, 2015. "Nonparametric estimation and inference on conditional quantile processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 1-19.
    14. Yu, Ping, 2015. "Adaptive estimation of the threshold point in threshold regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 83-100.
    15. repec:kap:ecopln:v:50:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10644-016-9192-z is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Marilena Furno, 2012. "Tests for structural break in quantile regressions," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(4), pages 493-515, October.
    17. Zhou, Mi & Wang, Huixia Judy & Tang, Yanlin, 2015. "Sequential change point detection in linear quantile regression models," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 98-103.
    18. repec:eee:intfin:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:52-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Sebastiano Manzan & Dawit Zerom, 2015. "Asymmetric Quantile Persistence and Predictability: the Case of US Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(2), pages 297-318, April.
    20. repec:kap:enreec:v:67:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s10640-015-9987-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:spr:soinre:v:135:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11205-016-1492-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Yan-Yu Chiou & Mei-Yuan Chen & Jau-er Chen, 2017. "Nonparametric Regression with Multiple Thresholds: Estimation and Inference," Papers 1705.09418, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.

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