IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Digging Out the PPP Hypothesis: an Integrated Empirical Coverage

  • Miguel de Carvalho

    ()

    (Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Institute of Mathematics)

  • Paulo Julio

    ()

    (Gabinete de Estrategia e Estudos, Ministry of Economy, Innovation, and Development)

We use several popular tests to test the validity of the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis. In particular, we analyze four classes of tests { standard univariate unit root tests, co-integration, panel unit root tests and unit root tests for nonlinear frameworks {, for a dataset consisting of 20 bilateral exchange rates. Through this approach, we ascertain the e ectiveness of each methodology in assessing the validity of PPP. Overall, our results suggest little evidence to support PPP. Among the conducted tests, the panel analysis of nonstationarity idiosyncratic and common components provides the richest insights by disentangling the possible sources of non-stationarity of real exchange rates. The relevance of using price indexes with di erent characteristics is also pinpointed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.gee.min-economia.pt/RePEc/WorkingPapers/gee_papers_24.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia e da Inovação in its series GEE Papers with number 0024.

as
in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision: Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0024
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Avenida da República no 79, 1050-243 Lisboa

Phone: 21 799 81 50
Fax: 21 799 81 54
Web page: http://gee.min-economia.pt
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, . "Real Exchange Rates under the Recent Float: Unequivocal Evidence of Mean Reversion," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 97-14, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  2. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  3. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective, and, If So, How Does It Work?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2690, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Martin Wagner, 2008. "On PPP, unit roots and panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 229-249, September.
  5. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
  6. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-42, November.
  7. Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Modeling non-linearities in real effective exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 27-45, January.
  8. Jacobson, Tor & Lyhagen, Johan & Larsson, Rolf & Nessén, Marianne, 2002. "Inflation, Exchange Rates and PPP in a Multivariate Panel Cointegration Model," Working Paper Series 145, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  9. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
  10. Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  11. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2913, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-84, February.
  13. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  14. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  15. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-77, Sept.-Oct.
  16. Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2004. "Nonlinear dynamics in deviations from the law of one price: a broad-based empirical study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-25, February.
  17. Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Nonlinear IV Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-85, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  18. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
  19. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  20. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
  21. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Peter C. B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic panel estimation and homogeneity testing under cross section dependence *," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 217-259, 06.
  23. Wallace, Frederick H. & Shelley, Gary L., 2006. "An alternative test of purchasing power parity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 177-183, August.
  24. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
  25. Pesaran, M.H., 2003. "A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  26. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  27. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1504, Econometric Society.
  28. James G. MacKinnon, 1995. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 918, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  29. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. " The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-19, September.
  30. L. Vanessa Smith & Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & Paul Newbold, 2004. "More powerful panel data unit root tests with an application to mean reversion in real exchange rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(2), pages 147-170.
  31. Engel, C., 1996. "Long-Run PPP May Not Hold After All," Working Papers 96-05, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  32. Goldberg, Lawrence G. & Gosnell, Thomas F. & Okunev, John, 1997. "Purchasing power parity: Modeling and testing mean reversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 949-966, July.
  33. Fleissig, Adrian R. & Strauss, Jack, 2000. "Panel unit root tests of purchasing power parity for price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 489-506, August.
  34. Mark, Nelson C., 1990. "Real and nominal exchange rates in the long run: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 115-136, February.
  35. Venus Khim-Sen Liew, 2004. "Nonlinear Adjustment of ASEAN-5 Real Exchange Rates: Symmetrical or Asymmetrical?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(8), pages 1-19.
  36. Hyungsik Roger MOON & Benoit PERRON, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In Panels With Dynamic Factors," Cahiers de recherche 18-2002, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  37. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  38. Fisher, Eric O'N & Park, Joon Y, 1991. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1476-84, November.
  39. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  40. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
  41. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
  42. Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil & Snaith, Stuart, 2005. "The PPP debate: Price matters!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 209-213, August.
  43. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
  44. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
  45. Koedijk, Kees G. & Schotman, Peter C. & Van Dijk, Mathijs A., 1998. "The re-emergence of PPP in the 1990s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 51-61, February.
  46. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
  47. Kaddour Hadri, 1999. "Testing For Stationarity In Heterogeneous Panel Data," Research Papers 1999_04, University of Liverpool Management School.
  48. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-79, August.
  49. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, May.
  50. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
  52. Tor Jacobson & Marianne Nessén, 2004. "Examining world-wide purchasing power parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 463-476, 09.
  53. Edison, Hali J., 1985. "Purchasing power parity: A quantitative reassessment of the 1920s experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 361-372, September.
  54. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  55. Corbae, Dean & Ouliaris, Sam, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(3), pages 508-11, August.
  56. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  57. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
  58. Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(3), pages 436-452, 08.
  59. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  60. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
  61. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  62. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
  63. Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
  64. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-80.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mde:wpaper:0024. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ricardo Pinheiro Alves)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.