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Inflation, exchange rates and PPP in a multivariate panel cointegration model

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  • Tor Jacobson
  • Johan Lyhagen
  • Rolf Larsson
  • Marianne Nessén

Abstract

New multivariate panel cointegration methods are used to analyze nominal exchange rates and prices in four major economies in Europe: France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom for the post-Bretton Woods period. We test for purchasing power parity (PPP) between these four countries and find that the theoretical PPP relationship does not hold. However, the estimated unrestricted relationship is found to be remarkably close to the theoretical one (1, −1.5, 0.9 instead of 1, −1,1). Relevant asymptotic results are stated, proved, and evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. The asymptotic results are general and may hence be used in similar empirical contexts using the same model structure. Parametric bootstrap inference is used in order to deal with test size distortions. Copyright Royal Economic Society 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Tor Jacobson & Johan Lyhagen & Rolf Larsson & Marianne Nessén, 2008. "Inflation, exchange rates and PPP in a multivariate panel cointegration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 58-79, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:ect:emjrnl:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:58-79
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    2. Piotr Kębłowski, 2021. "GVAR: A Case of Spurious Cross-Sectional Cointegration," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 13(2), pages 175-187, April.
    3. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Kosma, Theodora, 2005. "Market power, innovative activity and exchange rate pass-through in the euro area," Working Paper Series 531, European Central Bank.
    4. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.
    5. Piotr Kębłowski, 2011. "The Behaviour of Exchange Rates in the Central European Countries and Credit Default Risk Premiums," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 3(4), pages 221-236, December.
    6. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal, 2011. "Exchange rates and prices in purchasing power parity framework: Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 274-286.
    7. Urbain, J.R.Y.J. & Westerlund, J., 2008. "Spurious Regression in Nonstationary Panels time Series with Cross-Member Cointegration," Research Memorandum 044, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    8. In Choi, 2013. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Research Institute for Market Economy, Sogang University.
    9. Norkutė, Milda & Westerlund, Joakim, 2021. "The factor analytical approach in near unit root interactive effects panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 569-590.
    10. Pär Österholm & Mikael Carlsson & Johan Lyhagen, 2007. "Testing for Purchasing Power Parity in Cointegrated Panels," IMF Working Papers 2007/287, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Federico Marongiu, 2004. "Devaluación e Inflacion en Argentina despues de la Convertibilidad," Macroeconomics 0404013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Laaksonen-Craig, Susanna, 2004. "Foreign direct investments in the forest sector: implications for sustainable forest management in developed and developing countries," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 359-370, June.
    13. Piotr Kębłowski, 2016. "Canonical Correlation Analysis in Panel Vector Error Correction Model. Performance Comparison," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 8(4), pages 203-217, December.

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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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