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Inflation, Exchange Rates and PPP in a Multivariate Panel Cointegration Model

  • Tor Jacobson
  • Johan Lyhagen

    ()

    (Department of Economic Statistics, Stockholm School of Economics)

  • Rolf Larsson
  • Marianne Nessén

New multivariate panel cointegration methods are used to analyze nominal exchange rates and prices in the four major economic powers in Europe, France, Germany, Italy and Great Britain for the post- Bretton Woods period. We test for PPP and find that the theoretical PPP relationship does not hold but there is a similar (1,-1.5,0.9 instead of 1,-1,1) relationship which is common for the investigated countries. Parametric bootstrap inference is used to deal with badly small sample sized tests.

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Paper provided by International Conferences on Panel Data in its series 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 with number D4-2.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:d4-2
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  1. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen, 2000. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Multivariate Panel Cointegration Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1313, Econometric Society.
  2. Nessen, Marianne, 1996. "Common Trends in Prices and Exchange Rates. Tests of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 381-400.
  3. repec:dgr:uvatin:19990055 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 1997. "Real exchange rate behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 945-954, December.
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  9. Kugler, Peter & Lenz, Carlos, 1993. "Multivariate Cointegration Analysis and the Long-Run Validity of PPP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(1), pages 180-84, February.
  10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1994. "Mean reversion in real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 251-256, November.
  11. Gredenhoff, Mikael & Jacobson, Tor, 2001. "Bootstrap Testing Linear Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 63-72, January.
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  13. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  14. Menzie David Chinn, 1997. "Sectoral Productivity, Government Spending and Real Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 6017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. J.J.J. Groen & F. Kleibergen, 2001. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Analysis in Panels of Vector Error Correction Models," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 646, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  16. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
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  18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1993. "Long-run purchasing power parity during the recent float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 181-192, February.
  19. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  21. Larsson, Rolf & Lyhagen, Johan & Löthgren, Mickael, 1998. "Likelihood-Based Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 250, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 27 Aug 1998.
  22. Francis X. Diebold & Steven Husted & Mark Rush, 1990. "Real exchange rates under the gold standard," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 32, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  23. Lyhagen, Johan, 2000. "Why not use standard panel unit root test for testing PPP," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 413, Stockholm School of Economics.
  24. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
  25. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
  26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
  27. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  28. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  29. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  30. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 5742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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