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International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run

  • Alan M. Taylor

This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century for a sample of twenty countries, a broader sample of pooled annual data than has been studied before. Econometric results for time-series and panel samples allows us to test the robustness of the PPP hypothesis in different eras: the gold-standard, interwar, Bretton Woods, and the recent float. The evidence for PPP is mixed: Strong PPP, entailing stationarity of the real exchange rate, is not broadly supported, and real-exchange-rate dispersion shows counterintuitive historical patterns. However, not-much-weaker forms of PPP can be supported, with evidence of cointegration between different countries' common-currency price levels. Residual variances here confirm the conventional wisdom that the interwar period, particularly the Great Depression, represented the nadir of international capital market integration in the modern era.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w5742.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 5742.

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Date of creation: Sep 1996
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Publication status: Published as "Argentina and the World Capital Market: Saving, Investment,and International Capital Mobility in the Twentieth Century", Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 57, no. 1 (October 1998): 147-184.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:5742
Note: IFM DAE
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  5. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: The Saving-Investment Relationship," NBER Working Papers 5743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  20. Edison, Hali J. & Gagnon, Joseph E. & Melick, William R., 1997. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, February.
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  25. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
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