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Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard

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  • Diebold, Francis X
  • Husted, Steven
  • Rush, Mark

Abstract

In this paper, the authors assert that most studies that have sought to determine the validity of purchasing power parity are flawed for two reasons. First, post-1973 data contain, by definition, only a very limited amount of the low-frequency information relevant for examination of long-run parity. Second, the dynamic econometric techniques used to model deviations from parity are typically quite crude with respect to admissible low-frequency dynamics. Both deficiencies are rectified in the present paper, with dramatic results. With a new longer data set, the authors study deviations from parity using long-memory models that allow for subtle forms of mean reversion. Copyright 1991 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-1271, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:v:99:y:1991:i:6:p:1252-71
    DOI: 10.1086/261799
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
    2. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1991. "Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(1), pages 1-9, February.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
    4. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s," NBER Chapters, in: National Saving and Economic Performance, pages 227-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Officer, Lawrence H., 1983. "Dollar-Sterling Mint Parity and Exchange Rates, 1791–1834," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 579-616, September.
    6. Mark Rush & Steven Husted, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(1), pages 137-145, February.
    7. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November.
    8. Hakkio, Craig, 1986. "Does the exchange rate follow a random walk? A Monte Carlo study of four tests for a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 221-229, June.
    9. Clark, Truman A, 1984. "Violations of the Gold Points, 1890-1908," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(5), pages 791-823, October.
    10. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Diebold, Francis X., 1994. "On maximum likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally-integrated noise with unknown mean," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 301-316, June.
    11. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1989. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-209, September.
    12. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
    13. Lothian, James R., 1990. "A century plus of Yen exchange rate behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 47-70, March.
    14. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    15. Perkins, Edwin J., 1978. "Foreign Interest Rates in American Financial Markets: A Revised Series of Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rates, 1833–1900," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 392-417, June.
    16. Francis X. Diebold & Marc Nerlove, 1988. "Unit roots in economic time series: a selective survey," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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