IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity

  • Alan M. Taylor

This paper investigates purchasing-power parity (PPP) since the late nineteenth century. I collected data for a group of twenty countries over 100 years, a larger historical panel of annual data than has ever been studied. The evidence for long-run PPP is favorable using recent multivariate and univariate tests of higher power. Residual variance analysis shows that episodes of floating exchange rates have generally been associated with larger deviations from PPP, as expected; this result is not attributable to significantly greater persistence (longer half-lives) of deviations in such regimes, but is due to the larger shocks to the real exchange rate process in such episodes. In the course of the twentieth century, there was relatively little change in the capacity of international market integration to smooth out real exchange rate shocks. Instead, changes in the size of shocks depended on the political economy of monetary and exchange rate regime choice under the constraints imposed by the trilemma. © 2002 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/003465302317331973
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 84 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 139-150

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:84:y:2002:i:1:p:139-150
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

Order Information: Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Engel, C. & Rogers, J.H., 1996. "Regional Patterns in the Law of One Price: The Roles of Geography vs. Currencies," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  3. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
  4. Taylor, Mark P. & McMahon, Patrick C., 1988. "Long-run purchasing power parity in the 1920s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 179-197, January.
  5. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
  6. Anonymous, 1995. "Contents of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 12," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 12(3), September.
  7. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  8. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
  9. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
  11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2002. "PPP May not Hold Afterall: A Further Investigation," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(1), pages 43-64, May.
  12. Jacob Frenkel & Chairman, 1995. "Solutions for developed economies (general discussion)," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 295-306.
  13. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
  14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  15. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  16. Matthew Higgins & Egon Zakrajsek, 1999. "Purchasing power parity: three stakes through the heart of the unit root null," Staff Reports 80, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 3, number 3, 00.
  18. Engel, Charles & Rogers, John H, 1996. "How Wide Is the Border?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1112-25, December.
  19. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1985. "International Capital Mobility and Crowding Out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets or of Goods Markets?," NBER Working Papers 1773, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Diebold, Francis X & Husted, Steven & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Real Exchange Rates under the Gold Standard," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1252-71, December.
  21. Eichengreen, Barry, 1988. "Real exchange rate behavior under alternative international monetary regimes : Interwar evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 363-371, March.
  22. anonymous, 1995. "New Orleans and Louisiana: a tale of two economies," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Oct, pages 14-16.
  23. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1995. "A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-052, University of California at Berkeley.
  24. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing power parity : Another look at the long-run data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 339-344, April.
  25. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  26. Glen, Jack D., 1992. "Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1-2), pages 147-166, August.
  27. Anonymous, 1995. "March 1995 economic forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 58, March.
  28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 321-330, December.
  29. Hali J. Edison & Joseph E. Gagnon & William R. Melick, 1994. "Understanding the empirical literature on purchasing power parity: the post-Bretton Woods era," International Finance Discussion Papers 465, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  30. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  31. anonymous, 1995. "Economist examines financial derivatives risk," Financial Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jan, pages 4.
  32. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
  33. repec:inr:wpaper:153731 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Eric Rasmusen & ., 1995. "``The Economics of Agency Law and Contract Formation''," Law and Economics 9506002, EconWPA.
  35. Mark P. Taylor, 1995. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 13-47, March.
  36. Parsley, David C & Popper, Helen A, 2001. "Official Exchange Rate Arrangements and Real Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 976-93, November.
  37. anonymous, 1995. "Does the bouncing ball lead to economic growth?," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Jul, pages 1-2, 4-6.
  38. David R. Johnson, 1990. "Co-integration, Error Correction, and Purchasing Power Parity between Canada and the United States," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 23(4), pages 839-55, November.
  39. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  40. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
  41. anonymous, 1995. "Georgia economy strong even without Olympics," Regional Update, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Oct, pages 11-13.
  42. Donald N. McCloskey & J. Richard Zecher, 1984. "The Success of Purchasing-Power Parity: Historical Evidence and Its Implications for Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 121-172 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  44. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni, 1995. "Inflation uncertainty and real economic activities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(11), pages 460-462.
  45. Lothian, James R., 1990. "A century plus of Yen exchange rate behavior," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 47-70, March.
  46. Alan M. Taylor, 1996. "International Capital Mobility in History: Purchasing-Power Parity in the Long Run," NBER Working Papers 5742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
  48. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  49. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:84:y:2002:i:1:p:139-150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Pollock-Nelson)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.