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The Contribution of Growth and Interest Rate Differentials to the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates

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  • Ekaterini Panopoulou

    () (Economics, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

  • Dimitrios Malliaropulos
  • Theologos Pantelidis
  • Nikitas Pittis

Abstract

This paper employs a new methodology for measuring the contribution of growth and interest rate differentials to the half-life of deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP). Our method is based on directly comparing the impulse response function of a VAR model, where the real exchange rate is Granger caused by these variables with the impulse response function of a univatiate ARMA model for the real exchange rate. We show that the impulse response function of the VAR model is not, in general, the same with the impulse response function obtained from the equivalent ARMA representation, if the real exchange rate is Granger caused by other variables in the system. The difference between the two functions captures the effects of the Granger-causing variables on the half-life of deviations from PPP. Our empirical results for a set of four currencies suggest that real and nominal long term interest rate differentials and real GDP growth differentials account for 22% to 50% of the half-life of deviations from PPP.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekaterini Panopoulou & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Theologos Pantelidis & Nikitas Pittis, 2006. "The Contribution of Growth and Interest Rate Differentials to the Persistence of Real Exchange Rates," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1640306, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  • Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n1640306
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    Cited by:

    1. Hwa-Taek Lee & Gawon Yoon, 2013. "Does purchasing power parity hold sometimes? Regime switching in real exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(16), pages 2279-2294, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real exchange rate; persistence measures; VAR; impulse response function; PPP;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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