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Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?

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  • Tor Jacobson
  • Anders Vredin
  • Anders Warne

Abstract

In this paper we propose an alternative method for investigating the sources behind the behaviour of real wages and unemployment. The model we study is a certain cointegrated VAR, a so‐called common trends model, which has become increasingly popular in the empirical growth/business cycle literature. This model leads us to emphasize the distinction between long‐run and short‐run relations. Using quarterly Swedish data (1965–90), we find only weak evidence of a short‐run relation between real wages and unemployment as reported in traditional single‐equation error correction models. There is even less evidence of a long‐run relation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tor Jacobson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 1998. "Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 65(257), pages 69-96, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:65:y:1998:i:257:p:69-96
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0335.00114
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    Cited by:

    1. Kelvin Balcombe & Richard Tiffin, 2002. "Bootstrap testing of the expectations hypothesis with the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(9), pages 563-566.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 2002. "A small sample correction for tests of hypotheses on the cointegrating vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 195-221, December.
    3. Hualde, J. & Robinson, P.M., 2010. "Semiparametric inference in multivariate fractionally cointegrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 492-511, August.
    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House Prices and Business Cycles in Europe: a VAR Analysis," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 540, Boston College Department of Economics.
    5. Alain W. HECQ, 2005. "Common Trends and Common Cycles in Latin America: A 2-step vs an Iterative Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 258, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Tor Jacobson & Per Jansson & Anders Vredin & Anders Warne, 2001. "Monetary policy analysis and inflation targeting in a small open economy: a VAR approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 487-520.
    7. Juha Kilponen & David Mayes & Jouko Vilmunen, 1999. "Labour Market Flexibility in Northern Europe," One Europe or Several? Working Papers 2, One-Europe Programme.
    8. Bruggeman, Annick & Donati, Paola & Warne, Anders, 2003. "Is the demand for euro area M3 stable?," Working Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    9. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1999_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F., 2009. "The long-run determinants of UK wages, 1860-2004," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 5-28, March.
    11. Iacoviello, Matteo, 2000. "House prices and the macroeconomy in Europe: Results from a structural var analysis," Working Paper Series 18, European Central Bank.
    12. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2007. "Common shocks, common dynamics, and the international business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 149-166, January.
    13. Hjelm, Göran, 2001. "The Dynamic Response of the Budget Balance to Tax, Spending and Output Shocks: Does Model Specification Matter?," Working Papers 2001:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    14. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 2002. "Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in an Open Economy," Working Paper Series 134, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    15. Mayes, David G. & Vilmunen, Jouko, 1999. "Unemployment in a small open economy : Finland and New Zealand," Research Discussion Papers 10/1999, Bank of Finland.
    16. Ralf Brüggemann, 2006. "Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 409-431, June.
    17. W D A Bryant, 2009. "General Equilibrium:Theory and Evidence," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 6875, January.
    18. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel A. León‐Ledesma, 2010. "Revisiting The Real Wages–Unemployment Relationship. New Results From Non‐Linear Models," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 79-96, January.
    19. Bukowski, Maciej & Koloch, Grzegorz & Lewandowski, Piotr, 2008. "Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labor markets' performance. A panel SVECM approach," MPRA Paper 12429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Laura Gérard-Prenveille, 2003. "Déterminants du taux de chômage d’équilibre et ajustements sur le marché du travail : une analyse sur données françaises," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 159(3), pages 17-37.
    21. Jacobson, Tor & Jansson, Per & Vredin, Anders & Warne, Anders, 1999. "A VAR Model for Monetary Policy Analysis in a Small Open Economy," Working Paper Series 77, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    22. Heino Nielsen & Christopher Bowdler, 2006. "Inflation adjustment in the open economy: an I(2) analysis of UK prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 569-586, September.
    23. Rakesh Bissoondeeal & Michail Karoglou & Andy Mullineux, 2014. "Breaks in the UK Household Sector Money Demand Function," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82, pages 47-68, December.
    24. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.
    25. Maciej Bukowski & Grzegorz Koloch & Piotr Lewandowski, 2013. "Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labour markets’ performance," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 21(3), pages 553-581, July.

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