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The Gregory Thesis Visits the Tropics

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  • Peter Warr

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Abstract

A concern about large, export-oriented projects relates to the flows of foreign exchange into the domestic economy that they produce. These flows occur both during the investment phase of the project and subsequently during its operational phase, through export earnings. Foreign exchange inflows produce direct benefits for some groups, but may also indirectly harm others, through an appreciation of the real exchange rate. These indirect outcomes, known as the 'Gregory effect' in Australia and as the 'Dutch disease' or 'booming sector' effect elsewhere, are studied in this paper in the context of a large infrastructure project in Laos.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Warr, 2006. "The Gregory Thesis Visits the Tropics," Departmental Working Papers 2006-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pas:papers:2006-03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Benjamin, Nancy C. & Devarajan, Shantayanan & Weiner, Robert J., 1989. "The Dutch disease in a developing country : Oil reserves in Cameroon," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 71-92, January.
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    3. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D & Robinson, Sherman, 1993. "External Shocks, Purchasing Power Parity, and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 7(1), pages 45-63, January.
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    6. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    7. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    8. Snape, Richard H., 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(03), December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2008. "INDONESIA-E3: An Indonesian Applied General Equilibrium Model for Analyzing the Economy, Equity, and the Environment," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200804, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Sep 2008.
    2. Gregory, Robert G., 2012. "Living standards, terms of trade and foreign ownership: reflections on the Australian mining boom," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(2), June.
    3. Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2006. "Constructing Indonesian Social Accounting Matrix for Distributional Analysis in the CGE Modelling Framework," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200604, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2006.
    4. Laia PIÉ DOLS & Maria LLOP LLOP, "undated". "Modelling a Reduction of Greenhouse Gases Emissions in the Catalan Economy: The NAMEA Approach," EcoMod2010 259600132, EcoMod.
    5. Clements, Kenneth & Lan, Yihui & Roberts, John, 2008. "Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 102-117, June.
    6. Boyd Hunter & Monica Howlett & Matthew Gray, 2015. "The Economic Impact of the Mining Boom on Indigenous and Non-Indigenous Australians," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 517-530, September.
    7. Phillip Edmund Metaxas & Ernst Juerg Weber, 2016. "An Australian Contribution to International Trade Theory: The Dependent Economy Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 464-497, September.
    8. Yusuf, Arief Anshory & Resosudarmo, Budy P., 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Price Reform for Indonesia," MPRA Paper 1946, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Jayant Menon & Peter Warr, 2013. "Lao Economy: Capitalizing on Natural Resource Exports," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(1), pages 70-89, June.
    10. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Arief Ramayandi, 2008. "Reducing fuel subsidy or taxing carbon? Comparing the two instruments from the economy, environment, and equity perspective for Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200808, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Oct 2008.
    11. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Budy P. Resosudarmo, 2007. "Searching for Equitable Energy Pricing Reform for Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200701, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Dec 2007.
    12. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Intra-Country Distributional Impact of Policies to Fight Climate Change: A Survey," Working Papers ECARES 2008_038, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Phouphet Kyophilavong, 2011. "Will trade liberalization in least developed countries help during the crisis? Evidence from the Lao People’s Democratic Republic," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT,in: Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia, chapter 13 United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    14. Dorothée Boccanfuso & Antonio Estache & Luc Savard, 2008. "Distributional impact of global warming environmental policies: A survey," Cahiers de recherche 08-14, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.

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    Keywords

    F32; O11; O53;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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