IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2013-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantifying Australia's "Three Speed" Boom

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Walker
  • Rod Tyers

Abstract

This paper examines Australia's terms of trade boom since 2003 with a particular interest in quantifying the links between the terms of trade and sectoral performance and identifying an associated 'secondary services boom'. Comparative static general equilibrium modelling and empirical analysis are used to examine the sectoral impacts on employment and income. The modelling confirms the services expansion of sufficient scale to tighten national labour markets and it projects an associated manufacturing contraction. A separate empirical analysis approaches the same links using vector auto-regressions estimated from pre-boom Australian data (1989 through 2002) and out of sample simulations over the subsequent boom period. The secondary services boom appears clearly but the results on manufacturing are ambiguous. Actual employment booms were larger, and manufacturing sector performance better, than predicted on the estimated VARs, suggesting that the recent boom accompanied changes in industrial structure and underlying behavioural parameters that have been favourable to surviving manufacturing firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Walker & Rod Tyers, 2013. "Quantifying Australia's "Three Speed" Boom," CAMA Working Papers 2013-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-05/10_tyers_walker_revised.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rod Tyers & William Coleman, 2005. "Beyond Brigden: Australia’s Pre-War Manufacturing Tariffs, Real Wages and Economic Size," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2005-456, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    2. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    3. Steinmetz, Alexander, 2010. "Price and inventory dynamics in an oligopoly industry: A framework for commodity markets," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 82, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    4. R.G. Gregory, 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(2), pages 71-91, August.
    5. W. Max Corden, 2012. "Dutch Disease in Australia: Policy Options for a Three-Speed Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 45(3), pages 290-304, September.
    6. Ellis Connolly & David Orsmond, 2011. "The Mining Industry: From Bust to Boom," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2011-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    7. Anthony Venables, 2010. "Resource rents; when to spend and how to save," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(4), pages 340-356, August.
    8. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2004. "The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(s1), pages 13-23, September.
    9. Cassing, James H. & Warr, Peter G., 1985. "The distributional impact of a resource boom," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3-4), pages 301-319, May.
    10. Devaragan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy lessons from trade-focused, two-sector models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 625-657.
    11. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    12. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Lewis, Jeffrey & Robinson, Sherman, 1990. "Policy Lessons from Two-Sector Models," CUDARE Working Papers 198566, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    13. Wolfgang F. Stolper & Paul A. Samuelson, 1941. "Protection and Real Wages," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 58-73.
    14. Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & Shu-Chun S Yang & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2013. "Public Investment in Resource-Abundant Developing Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(1), pages 92-129, April.
    15. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    16. William Coleman, 2008. "Gauging Economic Performance Under Changing Terms Of Trade: Real Gross Domestic Income Or Real Gross Domestic Product?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 27(4), pages 329-342, December.
    17. Alexander Steinmetz, 2010. "Price and Inventory Dynamics in an Oligopoly Industry: A Framework for Commodity Markets," Working Papers 092, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    18. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    19. Peter Sheehan & Robert G. Gregory, 2013. "The Resources Boom and Economic Policy in the Long Run," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(2), pages 121-139, June.
    20. Ellis Connolly & David Orsmond, 2011. "The Mining Industry: From Bust to Boom," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Hugo Gerard & Jonathan Kearns (ed.),The Australian Economy in the 2000s, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    21. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-848, December.
    22. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tsun Se Cheong & Yanrui Wu, 2013. "Globalization and Regional Inequality," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 13-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Grace Taylor & Rod Tyers, 2017. "Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(303), pages 615-650, December.
    3. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2016. "On the Existence of a Middle-Income Trap," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(297), pages 173-189, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rod Tyers, 2014. "Asymmetry in Boom-Bust Shocks: Australian Performance with Oligopoly," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-23, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Gregory, Robert G., 2012. "Living standards, terms of trade and foreign ownership: reflections on the Australian mining boom," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 56(2), pages 1-30.
    3. Tim Robinson & Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Hao Wang, 2017. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 291-315, November.
    4. repec:ags:aare16:235308 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Edouard Mien & Michaël Goujon, 2022. "40 Years of Dutch Disease Literature: Lessons for Developing Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(3), pages 351-383, September.
    6. Peter Tulip, 2014. "The Effect of the Mining Boom on the Australian Economy," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 17-22, December.
    7. Hansen, James & Gross, Isaac, 2018. "Commodity price volatility with endogenous natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 157-180.
    8. Omar H. M. N. Bashar, 2015. "The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 94-108, June.
    9. Kenneth W. Clements & Liang Li, 2014. "Valuing Resource Investments," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 14-27, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    10. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry-McKibbin & Verity Linehan, 2014. "Chinese resource demand and the natural resource supplier," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 167-178, January.
    11. Kenneth W. Clements & Jiawei Si & Thomas Simpson, 2016. "Understanding New Resource Projects," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 584-600, September.
    12. Peter Warr, 2006. "The Gregory Thesis Visits the Tropics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(257), pages 177-194, June.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry‐Mckibbin & Vladimir Volkov, 2020. "Transmission of a Resource Boom: The Case of Australia," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 503-525, June.
    14. Kenneth Clements & Liang Li, 2017. "Understanding resource investments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(20), pages 1950-1962, April.
    15. Neil Dias Karunaratne, 2013. "The mining boom, productivity conundrum and monetary policy design to combat resource curse effects in Australia," Discussion Papers Series 504, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    16. Shehabi, Manal, 2020. "Diversification effects of energy subsidy reform in oil exporters: Illustrations from Kuwait," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Rossana Patrón, 1997. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Minimum wages for Dual Labour Market: A CGE Analysis," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0397, Department of Economics - dECON.
    18. Kapsalyamova, Zhanna, 2009. "Effects of World Price and Oil Export Price Increases in the Framework of One-sector and Two-Sector Stylized Models," MPRA Paper 18800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Grant Mark Nülle & Graham A. Davis, 2018. "Neither Dutch nor disease?—natural resource booms in theory and empirics," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(1), pages 35-59, May.
    20. Nam Foo & Ruhul Salim, 2022. "The evolution of mining employment during the resource boom and bust cycle in Australia," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 35(2), pages 309-324, June.
    21. Clements, Kenneth W. & Fry, Renée, 2008. "Commodity currencies and currency commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 55-73, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Resources boom; Dutch disease; general equilibrium; mining; secondary services boom; response asymmetry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2013-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.