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Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present

  • Tim Atkin
  • Mark Caputo
  • Tim Robinson
  • Hao Wang

The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy frameworks and settings are quite different to those of the past. This mitigated the broader macroeconomic consequences of the upswing and as the terms of trade decline may do likewise.

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Paper provided by Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University in its series CEH Discussion Papers with number 22.

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Date of creation: Jan 2014
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Handle: RePEc:auu:hpaper:022
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  1. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Jeffrey G Williamson, 2010. "Commodity Price Shocks and the Australian Economy Since Federation," OxCarre Working Papers 041, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
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  13. Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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  15. Michael Plumb & Christopher Kent & James Bishop, 2013. "Implications for the Australian Economy of Strong Growth in Asia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2013-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  16. Ross Garnaut, 2005. "Is Macroeconomics Dead? Monetary and Fiscal Policy in Historical Context," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 524-531, Winter.
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