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Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy

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  • Manalo, Josef
  • Perera, Dilhan
  • Rees, Daniel M.

Abstract

We use a structural vector autoregression model to characterise the aggregate and industry effects of exchange rate movements on the Australian economy. We find that a temporary 10% appreciation of the real exchange rate that is unrelated to commodity prices or interest rate differentials lowers the level of real GDP over the subsequent one-to-two years by 0.3% and year-ended inflation by 0.3 percentage points. The mining, manufacturing, personal services, construction and business services industries are the most exchange rate sensitive sectors of the economy. In the context of the boom in Australia's terms of trade over the past decade, we use our model to explore how the Australian economy might have evolved under alternative scenarios. These suggest that exchange rate movements over the past decade have had a stabilising effect on the domestic economy and can largely be explained by economic fundamentals.

Suggested Citation

  • Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:47:y:2015:i:c:p:53-62
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.02.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Makin, Anthony J. & Ratnasiri, Shyama, 2015. "Competitiveness and government expenditure: The Australian example," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 154-161.
    2. Kamber, Gunes & McDonald, Chris & Sander, Nick & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Modelling the business cycle of a small open economy: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's DSGE model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 546-569.
    3. Karagedikli, Özer & Ryan, Michael & Steenkamp, Daan & Vehbi, Tugrul, 2016. "What happens when the Kiwi flies? Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks on the New Zealand economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 945-959.
    4. Daniel M. Rees & Penelope Smith & Jamie Hall, 2016. "A Multi-sector Model of the Australian Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(298), pages 374-408, September.
    5. Christopher G Gibbs & Jonathan Hambur & Gabriela Nodari, 2018. "DSGE Reno: Adding a Housing Block to a Small Open Economy Model," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2018-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chang, Tsangyao & Ranjbar, Omid, 2016. "Asymmetric causality using frequency domain and time-frequency domain (wavelet) approaches," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 66-78.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amirhossein Mohammadian, 2016. "Asymmetry Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Domestic Production: Evidence from Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 181-191, September.
    8. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & Mohammadian, Amirhossein, 2017. "On the Relation between Domestic Output and Exchange Rate in 68 Countries: An Asymmetry Analysis," MPRA Paper 82939, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Apr 2017.
    9. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural VAR; Exchange rate; Small open economy;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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