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Uncovering the sources of sectoral employment fluctuations

Author

Listed:
  • Bryn Battersby

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Michael Kouparitsas

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Josiah Munro

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

This paper explores the sources of fluctuations in sectoral employment growth rates across the Australian economy over three different periods: the pre-terms of trade boom period; the pre-GFC phase of the terms of trade boom; and the GFC and post-GFC phase. We find that common cyclical fluctuations, not just sector specific shocks, can and do have an important effect on sectoral growth rate dispersion across the full sample. We also find that there is evidence of accelerated structural change in the latter phase of the terms of trade boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Bryn Battersby & Michael Kouparitsas & Josiah Munro, 2013. "Uncovering the sources of sectoral employment fluctuations," Treasury Working Papers 2013-03, The Treasury, Australian Government, revised Sep 2013.
  • Handle: RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2013_3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
    2. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-793, August.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
    5. Theodore M. Crone & Alan Clayton-Matthews, 2005. "Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 593-603, November.
    6. Ellen R. Rissman, 1997. "Measuring labor market turbulence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 21(May), pages 2-14.
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    Cited by:

    1. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    2. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "Australia: Staff Report for 2013 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Australia," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/051, International Monetary Fund.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kalman-filter; unobserved components; sectoral employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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