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A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Business Cycle on Firm-Level Data

Author

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  • Lucia Alessi
  • Matteo Barigozzi
  • Marco Capasso

Abstract

We use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model proposed by Forni et al. [2000] in order to study the dynamics of the rate of growth of output and investment. By using quarterly firm level data relative to hundreds of US firms for 20 years, we investigate the number and the features of the underlying forces leading economic growth: evidence suggests the main shock to be the same across sectors and for the economy as a whole, thus more likely a demand shock than a technology shock. Moreover, we disentangle the component of industrial dynamics which is due to economy-wide factors, the common component, from the component which relates to sectoral or firm-specific phenomena, the idiosyncratic component. We assess the relative importance of these two components at different frequencies and compare common components across sectors. Finally, we investigate the comovements of the common component of output and investment series both at firm level and at sectoral level.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2006. "A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Business Cycle on Firm-Level Data," LEM Papers Series 2006/27, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2006/27
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-522, June.
    2. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "A Comparison of Estimation Methods for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Working Papers 489, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July.
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    5. Bartelsman, Eric & Haltiwanger, John C. & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2004. "Microeconomic Evidence of Creative Destruction in Industrial and Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1374, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:12:y:2008:i:35:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Antonio Palestrini, 2008. "Common Components in Firms' Growth and the Sectors Scaling Puzzle," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 12(35), pages 1-8.
    3. Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2010. "The complex behavior of firms' size dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-76, July.

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    Keywords

    Dynamic Factor Analysis; Business Cycle; Comovements;

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