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A Dynamic Factor Analysis of Business Cycle on Firm-Level Data

  • Lucia Alessi
  • Matteo Barigozzi
  • Marco Capasso

We use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model proposed by Forni et al. [2000] in order to study the dynamics of the rate of growth of output and investment. By using quarterly firm level data relative to hundreds of US firms for 20 years, we investigate the number and the features of the underlying forces leading economic growth: evidence suggests the main shock to be the same across sectors and for the economy as a whole, thus more likely a demand shock than a technology shock. Moreover, we disentangle the component of industrial dynamics which is due to economy-wide factors, the common component, from the component which relates to sectoral or firm-specific phenomena, the idiosyncratic component. We assess the relative importance of these two components at different frequencies and compare common components across sectors. Finally, we investigate the comovements of the common component of output and investment series both at firm level and at sectoral level.

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Paper provided by Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy in its series LEM Papers Series with number 2006/27.

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Date of creation: 05 Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2006/27
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  1. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 0712, European Central Bank.
  3. Gary Chamberlain & Michael Rothschild, 1982. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 0996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
  5. Ellen R. Rissman, 1997. "Measuring labor market turbulence," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue May, pages 2-14.
  6. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2003. "A Comparison of Estimation Methods for Dynamic Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Working Papers 489, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  7. Russell Cooper & John C. Haltiwanger, 1987. "Inventories and the Propagation of Sectoral Shocks," NBER Working Papers 2425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bartelsman, Eric & Haltiwanger, John C. & Scarpetta, Stefano, 2004. "Microeconomic Evidence of Creative Destruction in Industrial and Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 1374, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  9. Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, June.
  10. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  11. Katharine G. Abraham & Lawrence F. Katz, 1984. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," NBER Working Papers 1410, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1989. "Real Business Cycles: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 79-90, Summer.
  13. John Haltiwanger & C J Krizan & Lucia Foster, 1998. "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons From Microeconomic Evidence," Working Papers 98-12, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  14. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Loungani, Prakash & Rogerson, Richard, 1989. "Cyclical fluctuations and sectoral reallocation : Evidence from the PSID," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 259-273, March.
  16. Mario Forni & Lucrezia Reichlin, 1998. "Let's get real: a factor analytical approach to disaggregated business cycle dynamics," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10147, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  17. John C. Haltiwanger, 1997. "Measuring and analyzing aggregate fluctuations: the importance of building from microeconomic evidence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 55-78.
  18. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July.
  19. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Factor models in large cross sections of time series," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10179, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  20. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August.
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