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Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present

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  • Tim Atkin
  • Mark Caputo
  • Tim Robinson
  • Hao Wang

Abstract

The early 21st century saw Australia experience its largest and longest terms of trade boom. This paper places this recent boom in a long-run historical context by comparing the current episode with earlier cycles. While similarities exist across most episodes, current macroeconomic policy frameworks and settings are quite different to those of the past. This mitigated the broader macroeconomic consequences of the upswing and as the terms of trade decline may do likewise.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2014. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present," CAMA Working Papers 2014-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-11
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    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2014-01/11_2014_atkin_caputo_robinson_wang.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2014. "Australia after the Terms of Trade Boom," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 55-62, March.
    2. Manalo, Josef & Perera, Dilhan & Rees, Daniel M., 2015. "Exchange rate movements and the Australian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 53-62.
    3. Idrisov, Georgiy & Ponomarev, Yuriy & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei, 2015. "Terms of trade and economic development of modern Russia," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 7-37.
    4. Kenneth W. Clements & Jiawei Si & Thomas Simpson, 2016. "Understanding New Resource Projects," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 62(3), pages 584-600, September.
    5. Alexander Ballantyne & Jonathan Hambur & Ivan Roberts & Michelle Wright, 2014. "Financial Reform in Australia and China," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2014-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. repec:eee:rujoec:v:2:y:2016:i:3:p:279-301 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; terms of trade; macroeconomic policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • N17 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Africa; Oceania

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