IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper

Commodity Currencies and Currency Commodities

  • Kenneth W. Clements

    ()

    (UWA Business School, The University of Western Australia)

  • Renee Fry

    (Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, The Australian National University & Cambridge Endowment for Research in Finance, The University of Cambridge)

There is a large literature on the influence of commodity prices on the currencies of countries with a large commodity-based export sector such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada (“commodity currencies”). There is also the idea that because of pricing power, the value of currencies of certain commodity-producing countries affects commodity prices, such as metals, energy, and agricultural-based products (“currency commodities”). This paper merges these two strands of the literature to analyse the simultaneous workings of commodity and currency markets. We implement the approach by using the Kalman filter to jointly estimate the determinants of the prices of these currencies and commodities. Included in the specification is an allowance for spillovers between the two asset types. The methodology is able to determine the extent that currencies are indeed driven by commodities, or that commodities are driven by currencies, over the period 1975 to 2005.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.biz.uwa.edu.au/home/research/discussionworking_papers/economics/2005?f=147001
File Function: First version, 2006
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics in its series Economics Discussion / Working Papers with number 06-17.

as
in new window

Length: 64 pages
Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-17
Contact details of provider: Postal:
35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, W.A. 6009

Phone: (08) 9380 2918
Fax: (08) 9380 1016
Web page: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/disciplines/economics

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Greenaway, David, 1989. "Commercial Policy and Policy Conflict: An Evaluation of the Incidence of Protection in a Non-industrialized Economy," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 57(2), pages 125-41, June.
  2. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  3. Mahieu, Ronald & Schotman, Peter, 1994. "Neglected common factors in exchange rate volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(3-4), pages 279-311, July.
  4. Gourieroux, C. & Monfort, A. & Renault, E., 1992. "Indirect Inference," Papers 92.279, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
  5. Edwards, Sebastian & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1987. "Tariffs, The Real Exchange Rate and the Terms of Trade: On Two Popular Propositions in International Economics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(3), pages 458-64, September.
  6. Mardi H Dungey, 1999. "Decomposing Exchange Rate Volatility Around the Pacific Rim," Working Papers 1999.12, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  8. David W.R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1991. "Australia’s Real Exchange Rate – Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9108, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  9. Neary, J Peter, 1987. "Determinants of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Darrell Duffie & Kenneth J. Singleton, 1990. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," NBER Technical Working Papers 0087, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Francis X. Diebold & Monika Piazzesi & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2005. "Modeling Bond Yields in Finance and Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 415-420, May.
  12. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
  13. Paul Cashin & Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ratna Sahay, 2003. "Commodity Currencies and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 236, Central Bank of Chile.
  14. Devereux, John & Connolly, Michael, 1996. "Commercial policy, the terms of trade and the real exchange rate revisited," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 81-99, June.
  15. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1974. "Tariffs and nontraded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 177-185, May.
  16. Gregory, R.G., 1976. "Some Implications Of The Growth Of The Mineral Sector," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 20(02), August.
  17. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1986. "Exchange Rate Economics: 1986," NBER Working Papers 2071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. L.A. Sjaastad & F. Scacciavillani, 1995. "The Price of Gold and the Exchange Rates," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 95-14, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  19. Clague, Christopher & Greenaway, David, 1994. "Incidence Theory, Specific Factors and the Augmented Heckscher-Ohlin Model," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 36-43, March.
  20. Gregory, R.G., 1979. "Some Implications Of Growth In The Mineral Sector: Errata," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 23(01), April.
  21. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
  22. David Gruen & Tro Kortian, 1996. "Why Does the Australian Dollar Move so Closely with the Terms of Trade?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9601, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  23. Corden, W Max & Neary, J Peter, 1982. "Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 92(368), pages 825-48, December.
  24. Douglas A. Irwin, 2006. "Tariff Incidence in America's Gilded Age," NBER Working Papers 12162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Choi, Kwang-Ho & Cumming, Tracey A, 1986. "Who Pays for Protection in Australia?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(179), pages 490-96, December.
  26. Kenneth W. Clements & Renee Fry, 2006. "Commodity Currencies And Currency Commodities," CAMA Working Papers 2006-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  27. Broda, Christian, 2004. "Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 31-58, May.
  28. Connolly, Michael & Devereux, John, 1992. "Commercial Policy, the Terms of Trade, and Real Exchange Rates," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 507-12, July.
  29. Vance L. Martin & Mardi Dungey, 2007. "Unravelling financial market linkages during crises," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 89-119.
  30. Snape, Richard H., 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(03), December.
  31. L.A. Sjaastad & K.W. Clements, 1981. "The Incidence of Protection: Theory and measurement," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 81-04, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  32. Fisher, Lance A, 1996. "Sources of Exchange Rate and Price Level Fluctuations in Two Commodity Exporting Countries: Australia and New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 72(219), pages 345-58, December.
  33. Gilbert, Christopher L, 1989. "The Impact of Exchange Rates and Developing Country Debt on Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 773-84, September.
  34. Greenaway, David & Milner, Chris, 1988. "Intra industry trade and the shifting of protection across sectors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 927-945, April.
  35. Richard H. Snape, 1977. "Effects Of Mineral Development On The Economy," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 21(3), pages 147-156, December.
  36. Larry A. Sjaastad & Meher Manzur, 2003. "Import Protection, Capital Inflows, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 177-203, May.
  37. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2003. "Equity Transmission Mechanisms from Asia to Australia: Interdependence or Contagion?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 28(2), pages 157-182, September.
  38. K.W. Clements & J. Freebairn, 1990. "Exchange Rates and Australian Commodity Exports," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 90-09, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  39. McKenzie, Ian M, 1986. "Australia's Real Exchange Rate during the Twentieth Century," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 69-78, Supplemen.
  40. K.W. Clements & L.A. Sjaastad, 1983. "How Protection Taxes Exporters," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 83-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  41. Sjaastad, Larry A., 1998. "On exchange rates, nominal and real," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 407-439, June.
  42. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October.
  43. Swift, Robyn, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and endogenous terms of trade effects in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 737-745, December.
  44. Larry A. Sjaastad, 1998. "Why PPP Real Exchange Rates Mislead," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 179-207, November.
  45. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  46. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Robert G. Gregory, 1990. "Exchange Rate Policy in Advanced Commodity-Exporting Countries: The Case of Australia and New Zealand," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 83, OECD Publishing.
  47. Kenneth W. Clements & Meher Manzur, 2001. "Notes on Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 01-25, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  48. Mardi Dungey & Vance L Martin & Adrian R Pagan, 2000. "A multivariate latent factor decomposition of international bond yield spreads," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 697-715.
  49. Maria-Jesus Asensio & Eva Pardos, 2001. "Trade policy and Spanish specialization, 1978-93," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 163-187.
  50. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
  51. Priniti Panday, 2003. "Incidence theory and the shifting of protection across sectors: the South Asian experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 125-132.
  52. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:06-17. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Verity Chia)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.