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Neglected Common Factors in Exchange Rate Volatility

  • Ronald Mahieu
  • Peter Schotman

The paper proposes a new multivariate model for exchange rate volatility in a system of bilateral exchange rates, using a factor structure of exchange rates one of the common factors is always related to the numeraire currency. Time variation in the volatility is modelled using a stochastic variance approach. The interpretation of the factors provides a new way of estimating risk premia in the foreign exchange market. Empirical results show considerable volatility spillovers among the four major currencies. Risk premia show a major sign reversal for the dollar risk premium around 1978.

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Paper provided by European Science Foundation Network in Financial Markets, c/o C.E.P.R, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ. in its series CEPR Financial Markets Paper with number 0041.

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Date of creation: Jan 1994
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Availability: in print
Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprfm:0041
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