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Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040

Author

Listed:
  • Leon Berkelmans

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Hao Wang

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper projects Chinese urban residential construction out to 2040. The paper argues that the extraordinary growth of recent years will not continue, but that construction will stabilise at a high level. This augurs well for steel demand, especially as steel intensity is expected to increase. These projections are subject to upside and downside risks, which are discussed. In addition, this paper argues that official figures understate the extent of urban residential construction.

Suggested Citation

  • Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction to 2040," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2012-04
    as

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    File URL: https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2012/pdf/rdp2012-04.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justin Yifu Lin, 2013. "Demystifying the Chinese Economy," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 46(3), pages 259-268, September.
    2. Chun-Chung Au & J. Vernon Henderson, 2006. "Are Chinese Cities Too Small?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(3), pages 549-576.
    3. Isaac, Morna & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2009. "Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 507-521, February.
    4. Nicholas R. Lardy, 2012. "Sustaining China's Economic Growth after the Global Financial Crisis," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6260, April.
    5. Fujita, Masahisa & Mori, Tomoya & Henderson, J. Vernon & Kanemoto, Yoshitsugu, 2004. "Spatial distribution of economic activities in Japan and China," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 65, pages 2911-2977, Elsevier.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Robinson & Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Hao Wang, 2017. "Macroeconomic Consequences of Terms of Trade Episodes, Past and Present," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 291-315, November.
    2. Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei Raphael Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 2015/084, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Ross Kendall, 2014. "Economic linkages between New Zealand and China," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series AN2014/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Tim Atkin & Mark Caputo & Tim Robinson & Hao Wang, 2014. "Australia after the Terms of Trade Boom," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 55-62, March.
    5. Leon Berkelmans & Hao Wang, 2012. "Chinese Urban Residential Construction," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 21-26, September.
    6. M. Albert & Cristina Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    7. Zhang, Qi & Xu, Jin & Wang, Yujie & Hasanbeigi, Ali & Zhang, Wei & Lu, Hongyou & Arens, Marlene, 2018. "Comprehensive assessment of energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation in China’s iron and steel industry based on dynamic material flows," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 251-265.
    8. Tim Atkin & Ellis Connolly, 2013. "Australian Exports: Global Demand and the High Exchange Rate," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 1-10, June.
    9. Mark Kruger & Kun Mo & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2016. "The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices," Discussion Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    10. Bielschowsky, Ricardo & da Rocha, Felipe Freitas, 2018. "China’s quest for natural resources in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    11. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2016. "A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Patrick D’Arcy & Alexandra Veroude, 2014. "Housing Trends in China and India," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 63-68, March.
    13. Yin, Xiang & Chen, Wenying, 2013. "Trends and development of steel demand in China: A bottom–up analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 407-415.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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