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Understanding Residential Real Estate in China

Author

Listed:
  • Miss Mali Chivakul
  • Mr. Waikei R Lam
  • Xiaoguang Liu
  • Wojciech Maliszewski
  • Mr. Alfred Schipke

Abstract

China’s residential real estate sector plays an important role in the economy and has been a key driver of growth. Since 2014 the sector has softened visibly, reflecting overbuilding across many cities. An orderly adjustment of the sector is welcome. The key questions are how severe the adjustment will be and how long it will last. This paper uses various datasets, an analytical framework to estimate demand and supply conditions, and develops a number of scenarios to determine the oversupply both at the national level and by city tiers. It highlights that the adjustment will be a multiyear process with adverse implications for investment and growth. Smaller cities, as well as those in the Northeast region, face more challenging demand-supply dynamics. The key will be to allow the adjustment to take place, while avoiding a too sharp of an economic slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Miss Mali Chivakul & Mr. Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Mr. Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 2015/084, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
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    5. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Koss & Xinrui Shi, 2018. "Stabilizing China’s Housing Market," IMF Working Papers 2018/089, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 93-116, Winter.
    3. Zhou, Wei & Moncaster, Alice & O'Neill, Eoghan & Reiner, David M. & Wang, Xinke & Guthrie, Peter, 2022. "Modelling future trends of annual embodied energy of urban residential building stock in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    4. Ivan Roberts & Trent Saunders & Gareth Spence & Natasha Cassidy, 2016. "China's Evolving Demand for Commodities," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Sheng Huang & Jonathan Williams & Ru Xie, 2017. "The Future of Money: Liquidity co-movement between financial institutions and real estate firms: evidence from China," Working Papers 17004, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    6. Cao, Xiaping & Huang, Bihong & Lai, Rose Neng, 2018. "The Impact of Exogenous Demand Shock on the Housing Market: Evidence from the Home Purchase Restriction Policy in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 824, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    7. Ding Ding & Weicheng Lian, 2018. "The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China," IMF Working Papers 2018/261, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mark Kruger & Kun Mo & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2016. "The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices," Discussion Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    9. Shengqin Zheng & Ye Cheng & Yingjie Ju, 2019. "Understanding the Intention and Behavior of Renting Houses among the Young Generation: Evidence from Jinan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, March.
    10. Ying Fan & Charles Ka Yui Leung & Zan Yang, 2022. "Financial conditions, local competition, and local market leaders: The case of real estate developers," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 131-193, May.
    11. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:dinghuang is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Man Xu & Qing Shi, 2018. "A Theoretic Approach to China's Housing Market Boom and Down Payment Loans," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 19(1), pages 265-278, May.
    13. Guoying Deng & Manuel A Hernandez & Yaoguo Wu, 2016. "Price discovery and dynamics across housing developers in China," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, issue 4, pages 1966-1974.
    14. Gao, Nan & Liang, Pinghan, 2019. "Home value misestimation and household behavior: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 168-180.
    15. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2020. "Peak China Housing," NBER Working Papers 27697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Natacha Aveline-Dubach, 2017. "Centrality of Land in the Capital Accumulation Regime in China [La centralité du foncier dans le régime d’accumulation du capital en Chine]," Post-Print halshs-01556558, HAL.
    17. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    18. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
    19. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng, 2016. "Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    20. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2016. "A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.),Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, Reserve Bank of Australia.

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