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Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy

Author

Listed:
  • John B. Donaldson
  • Christos Koulovatianos
  • Jian Li
  • Rajnish Mehra

Abstract

Following the introduction of the one-child policy in China, the capital-labor ratio of China increased relative to that of India, while FDI/GDP inflows to China vs India simultaneously declined. These observations are explained in the context of a simple neoclassical OLG paradigm. The adjustment mechanism works as follows: the reduction in the growth rate of the (urban) labor force due to the one-child policy increases the capital per worker inherited from the previous generation. The resulting increase in China’s domestic capital-labor ratio thus “crowds out” the need for FDI in China relative to India. Our paper is a contribution to the nascent literature exploring demographic transitions and their effects on FDI flows.

Suggested Citation

  • John B. Donaldson & Christos Koulovatianos & Jian Li & Rajnish Mehra, 2018. "Demographics and FDI: Lessons from China's One-Child Policy," NBER Working Papers 24256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24256
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    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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