IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/qsh/wpaper/456006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics

Author

Listed:
  • Edward Glaeser
  • Wei Huang
  • Yueran Ma
  • Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

Chinese housing prices rose by over 10 percent per year in real terms between 2003 and 2014, and are now between two and ten times higher than the construction cost of apartments. At the same time, Chinese developers built 100 billion square feet of residential real estate. This boom has been accompanied by a large increase in the number of vacant homes, held by both developers and households. This boom may turn out to be a housing bubble followed by a crash, yet that future is far from certain. The demand for real estate in China is so strong that current prices might be sustainable, especially given the sparse alternative investments for Chinese households, so long as the level of new supply is radically curtailed. Whether that happens depends on the policies of the Chinese government, which must weigh the benefits of price stability against the costs of restricting urban growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward Glaeser & Wei Huang & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "A Real Estate Boom with Chinese Characteristics," Working Paper 456006, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  • Handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:456006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://scholar.harvard.edu/weihuang/node/456006
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    3. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Enrico Moretti, 2015. "Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation," NBER Working Papers 21154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    5. Hongbin Cai & J. Vernon Henderson & Qinghua Zhang, 2013. "China's land market auctions: evidence of corruption?," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(3), pages 488-521, September.
    6. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    7. Chauvin, Juan Pablo & Glaeser, Edward & Ma, Yueran & Tobio, Kristina, 2017. "What is different about urbanization in rich and poor countries? Cities in Brazil, China, India and the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 17-49.
    8. Mali Chivakul & Waikei R Lam & Xiaoguang Liu & Wojciech Maliszewski & Alfred Schipke, 2015. "Understanding Residential Real Estate in China," IMF Working Papers 15/84, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    10. Yongheng Deng & Joseph Gyourko & Jing Wu, 2012. "Land and House Price Measurement in China," NBER Working Papers 18403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hsieh, Chang-Tai & Moretti, Enrico, 2015. "Why Do Cities Matter? Local Growth and Aggregate Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 10604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:regeco:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:98-114 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:renene:v:114:y:2017:i:pa:p:3-17 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:cuf:journl:y:2018:v:19:i:1:xu:shi is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jia, Pengfei & Lim, King Yoong, 2018. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," MPRA Paper 86576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zhen Tian & Chengning Zhang & Shuo Zhang, 2017. "Analytical Calculation of Magnetic Field Distribution and Stator Iron Losses for Surface-Mounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Machines," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(3), pages 1-12, March.
    6. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:1845-:d:114833 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:276-292 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Shu-gang Li & Hai-qing Shuang & Hong-sheng Wang & Ki-Il Song & Lang Liu, 2017. "Extraction of Pressurized Gas in Low Air-Conductivity Coal Seam Using Drainage Roadway," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, February.
    9. William Barnett & Mingzhi Hu & Xue Wang, 2018. "Does the Utilization of Information Communication Technology Promote Entrepreneurship: Evidence from Rural China," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201802, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    10. Song, Zheng (Michael) & Xiong, Wei, 2018. "Risks in China’s financial system," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    11. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    12. Cao, Xiaping & Huang, Bihong & Lai, Rose Neng, 2018. "The Impact of Exogenous Demand Shock on the Housing Market: Evidence from the Home Purchase Restriction Policy in the People’s Republic of China," ADBI Working Papers 824, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Cheng, Dong & Tan, Yong & Yu, Jian, 2017. "Credit Rationing and Firm Exports: Micro Evidence from SMEs in China," MPRA Paper 81914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:3:p:642-:d:133972 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Tommaso Gabrieli & Theodore Panagiotidis & Yishuang Xu, 2018. "Pair-wise Convergence of Intra-city House Prices in Beijing," ERES eres2018_236, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    16. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:10:p:1782-:d:114329 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:2050-:d:118040 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Yu Zhang, 2017. "Liquidity Constraints, Transition Dynamics, and the Chinese Housing Return Premium," 2017 Meeting Papers 1217, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:dinghuang is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:42-:d:158481 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • P25 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:qsh:wpaper:456006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Brandon). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrssus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.