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The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China

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  • M. Albert
  • C. Jude
  • C. Rebillard

Abstract

After three decades of rapid growth, the Chinese economy has been slowing; at the same time, concerns about the sustainability of its growth model are mounting, calling for urgent rebalancing. This paper provides an assessment of how, and to what extent, the rebalancing process may impact China’s potential growth in the next fifteen years. After reviewing the main reasons behind China’s high growth and imbalances (and the role of factor price distortions), as well as its rising vulnerabilities (overinvestment, excessive credit growth, and a real estate bubble), we adopt a production function approach to derive potential growth. However we depart from the standard methodology in two important ways: first, we correct China’s capital stock for overinvestment by taking into account the credit cycle; second, we disentangle the effects of sectoral reallocations from within-sector productivity, allowing for a better assessment of the expected shift from manufacturing to services. Our results indicate that growth would be currently slightly higher than its potential, with a positive output gap, thus questioning the rationale for additional stimulus measures. Moreover, in our scenario potential growth would fall more quickly than currently expected by the Consensus, to around 5 percent by 2020.

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  • M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:572
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ludovic Gauvin & Cyril C. Rebillard, 2018. "Towards recoupling? Assessing the global impact of a Chinese hard landing through trade and commodity price channels," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3379-3415, December.
    3. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Harashima, Taiji, 2016. "The Impending Long March of the Chinese Economy," MPRA Paper 73275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    6. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "How severe will the growth slowdown in China caused by the structural change be? – An evaluation based on experiences from Japan and South Korea," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 8/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    7. Laura Komlóssy & Gyöngyi Vargáné Körmendi, 2019. "China in Search of Equilibrium – Transition Dilemmas of Growth and Stability," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 18(3), pages 114-134.
    8. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    9. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2017. "How severe will the growth slowdown in China caused by the structural change be? An evaluation based on experiences from Japan and South Korea," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 269-287, July.
    10. repec:bla:glopol:v:8:y:2017:i::p:42-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Helmut K. Anheier & Robert Falkner & Alanna Krolikowski, 2017. "Brittle China? Economic and Political Fragility with Global Implications," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 8(s4), pages 42-53, June.
    12. Arpita Chatterjee & Richa Saraf, 2017. "Impact of China on World Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters," Discussion Papers 2017-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    13. Alessandro Borin & Enrica Di Stefano, 2016. "Economic reforms in China and India: past and future challenges," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 337, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2018. "Avoiding the middle-income trap: Korean lessons for China?," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 14/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    15. Hyun-Hoon Lee & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2017. "Effects of China's Structural Change on the Exports of East Asian Economies," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(3), pages 1-30, May.
    16. Lodge, David & Soudan, Michel, 2019. "Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China," Working Paper Series 2244, European Central Bank.
    17. Wojciech Maliszewski & Longmei Zhang, 2015. "China’s Growth; Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?," IMF Working Papers 2015/113, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Apurva Sanghi & Andrew Burns & Calvin Djiofack & Dinar Prihardini & Jagath Dissanayake & Claire Hollweg, 2017. "A Rebalancing China and Resurging India," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 28422, June.
    19. Wagner, Helmut, 2018. "Structural change, rebalancing, and the danger of a middle-income trap in China," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 13/2018, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; potential growth; overinvestment; credit cycle; sectoral reallocations; rebalancing.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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