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Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?

Author

Listed:
  • Ashvin Ahuja

    (Asia-Pacific Department of International Monetary Fund)

  • Lillian Cheung

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Gaofeng Han

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • Nathan Porter

    (Asia-Pacific Department of International Monetary Fund)

  • Wenlang Zhang

    (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

Abstract

Sharp increase in house prices combined with the extraordinary lending growth in Mainland China during 2009 has led to concerns of an emerging real estate bubble. We find that, for China as a whole, the current levels of house prices do not seem significantly higher than would be justified by underlying fundamentals. However, there are signs of overvaluation in some cities¡¦ mass-market and luxury segments. Unlike advanced economies before 2007-8, prices have tended to correct frequently in China. Given persistently low real interest rates, lack of alternative investment and mortgage-to-GDP trend, rapid property price growth in China has, and will continue to have, a structural driver.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashvin Ahuja & Lillian Cheung & Gaofeng Han & Nathan Porter & Wenlang Zhang, 2010. "Are House Prices Rising Too Fast in China?," Working Papers 1008, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  • Handle: RePEc:hkg:wpaper:1008
    as

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    File URL: http://www.hkma.gov.hk/media/eng/publication-and-research/research/working-papers/HKMAWP10_08_full.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    2. Dong He & Wenlang Zhang & Jimmy Shek, 2007. "How Efficient Has Been China'S Investment? Empirical Evidence From National And Provincial Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 597-617, December.
    3. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    4. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    5. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-1244, September.
    6. Harding, John P. & Rosenthal, Stuart S. & Sirmans, C.F., 2007. "Depreciation of housing capital, maintenance, and house price inflation: Estimates from a repeat sales model," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 193-217, March.
    7. Frank Leung & Kevin Chow & Gaofeng Han, 2008. "Long-term and Short-term Determinants of Property Prices in Hong Kong," Working Papers 0815, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2016. "Evaluating the risk of Chinese housing markets: What we know and what we need to know," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 91-114.
    2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke & Aaron Mehrotra, 2017. "What Drives Urban Consumption in Mainland China? The Role of Property Price Dynamics," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 383-409, August.
    3. Tie-Ying Liu & Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Zhao Jiang, 2016. "China's housing bubble burst?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 361-389, April.
    4. Michael, Bryane & Zhao, Simon, 2016. "Bubble Economics How Big a Shock to China’s Real Estate Sector Will Throw the Country into Recession, and Why Does It Matter?," EconStor Preprints 141314, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    5. Zhang, Yanbing & Hua, Xiuping & Zhao, Liang, 2012. "Exploring determinants of housing prices: A case study of Chinese experience in 1999–2010," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2349-2361.
    6. Roland Döhrn & Philipp an de Meulen & Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2011. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland zur Jahreswende 2010/2011 - Aufschwung setzt sich fort – Divergenzen bleiben groß," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 34, 03.
    7. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    8. Jing Wu & Yongheng Deng & Hongyu Liu, 2014. "House Price Index Construction in the Nascent Housing Market: The Case of China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 522-545, April.
    9. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. repec:eco:journ1:2017-04-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2015. "Housing market dynamics in China: Findings from an estimated DSGE model," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 26-40.
    12. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Torsten & Vosen, Simeon, 2011. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Aufschwung setzt sich fort - Divergenzen bleiben groß," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 62(1), pages 5-37.
    13. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    14. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux, 2015. "Fundamentals and the Volatility of Real Estate Prices in China: A Sequential Modelling Strategy," Working Papers 222015, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    15. repec:eee:regeco:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Funke, Michael & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Tsang, Andrew, 2017. "Mapping China’s time-varying house price landscape," BOFIT Discussion Papers 21/2017, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    17. Iris Claus & Les Oxley & Jie Chen & Xuehui Han, 2014. "The Evolution Of The Housing Market And Its Socioeconomic Impacts In The Post-Reform People'S Republic Of China: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 652-670, September.
    18. Mylène Gaulard, 2014. "Les dangers de la bulle immobilière chinoise," Revue Tiers-Monde, Armand Colin, vol. 0(3), pages 77-96.
    19. Wen, Xing-Chun & He, Ling-Yun, 2015. "Housing demand or money supply? A new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model on China’s housing market fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 432(C), pages 257-268.
    20. Bian, Timothy Yang & Gete, Pedro, 2015. "What drives housing dynamics in China? A sign restrictions VAR approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 96-112.
    21. repec:kap:jrefec:v:55:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11146-016-9586-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House price; price misalignment; financial stability; leverage cycle;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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