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Tranching, CDS and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes

We show how the timing of financial innovation might have contributed to the mortgage bubble and then to the crash of 2007-2009. We show why tranching and leverage first raised asset prices and why CDS lowered them afterwards. This may seem puzzling, since it implies that creating a derivative tranche in the securitization whose payoffs are identical to the CDS will raise the underlying asset price while the CDS outside the securitization lowers it. The resolution of the puzzle is that the CDS lowers the value of the underlying asset since it is equivalent to tranching cash.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d18a/d1809-r.pdf
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Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1809R.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (January 2012), 4(1): 190-225
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1809r
Note: CFP 1353
Contact details of provider: Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/

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  1. Patrick Bolton & Martin Oehmke, 2010. "Credit Default Swaps and the Empty Creditor Problem," NBER Working Papers 15999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  3. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Why does Bad News Increase Volatility and Decrease Leverage?," Working Papers 2010-18, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  4. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
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  6. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2001. "Equilibrium and Welfare in Markets with Financially Constrained Arbitrageurs," CEPR Discussion Papers 3049, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Brunnermeier, Markus K & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2007. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," CEPR Discussion Papers 6179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Margin-Based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price," NBER Working Papers 16777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2011. "Endogenous Leverage: VaR and Beyond," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1800, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  10. Tobias Adrian & Hyun Song Shin, 2008. "Liquidity and leverage," Staff Reports 328, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  11. Gary B. Gorton & Andrew Metrick, 2009. "Securitized Banking and the Run on Repo," NBER Working Papers 15223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Araújo, Aloísio & Kubler, Felix & Schommer, Susan, 2012. "Regulating collateral-requirements when markets are incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 450-476.
  14. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521524131 is not listed on IDEAS
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  16. Viral V. Acharya & S. Viswanathan, 2010. "Leverage, Moral Hazard and Liquidity," NBER Working Papers 15837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  18. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  19. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-08," NBER Working Papers 14612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  22. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 101-131.
  23. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1751, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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