IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finsta/v22y2016icp129-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of margin changes on commodity futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Daskalaki, Charoula
  • Skiadopoulos, George

Abstract

In light of the recently passed 2010 Dodd–Frank Act, we assess the effect of margin changes on prices, the risk-sharing between speculators and hedgers, and the price stability of 20 commodity futures markets. We find that margin increases decrease the rate at which prices change, yet they impair the risk sharing function and they decrease market liquidity in certain markets. The regulator should set margins by taking the heterogeneity of commodity futures markets into account. Certain effects of margin changes diffuse across related markets though. Our results are robust to endogenously set margins by the exchanges and to alternative ways of measuring market liquidity. Interestingly, the effect of margin changes is more pronounced in commodity futures markets than in major equity and interest rate futures markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "The effects of margin changes on commodity futures markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 129-152.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:22:y:2016:i:c:p:129-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2016.01.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1572308916000036
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.01.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1990. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Transitory Components of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 736-762, September.
    2. Ronald Anderson, 1981. "Comments on “margins and futures contracts”," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 259-264, June.
    3. Gemmill, Gordon, 1994. "Margins and the safety of clearing houses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 979-996, October.
    4. George W. Fenn & Paul Kupiec, 1993. "Prudential margin policy in a futures‐style settlement system," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 389-408, June.
    5. Gromb, Denis & Vayanos, Dimitri, 2002. "Equilibrium and welfare in markets with financially constrained arbitrageurs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 361-407.
    6. Kate Phylaktis & Antonis Aristidou, 2013. "Margin Changes and Futures Trading Activity: a New Approach," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(1), pages 45-71, January.
    7. Cuny, Charles J, 1993. "The Role of Liquidity in Futures Market Innovations," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 57-78.
    8. Nicolae Gârleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2011. "Margin-based Asset Pricing and Deviations from the Law of One Price," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1980-2022.
    9. Salant, Stephen W, 1983. "The Vulnerability of Price Stabilization Schemes to Speculative Attack," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-38, February.
    10. Paul Kupiec, 1998. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since the Crash?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 231-255, June.
    11. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1986. "The Effects of Changing Margin Levels on Futures Market Activity, the Composition of Traders in the Market, and Price Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 147-180, April.
    12. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1986. "Asset pricing and the bid-ask spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 223-249, December.
    13. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    14. Gerald D. Gay & William C. Hunter & Robert W. Kolb, 1986. "A comparative analysis of futures contract margins," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 307-324, June.
    15. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jan 2010.
    16. Pashigian, B Peter, 1986. "The Political Economy of Futures Market Regulation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 55-84, April.
    17. Ben R. Marshall & Nhut H. Nguyen & Nuttawat Visaltanachoti, 2012. "Commodity Liquidity Measurement and Transaction Costs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 599-638.
    18. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
    19. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
    20. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    21. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath, 1999. "Margin requirements and futures activity: Evidence from the soybean and corn markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 433-455, June.
    22. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    23. Huang, Jennifer & Wang, Jiang, 2010. "Market liquidity, asset prices, and welfare," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 107-127, January.
    24. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Stavros Peristiani, 1992. "Margin Requirements, Speculative Trading, and Stock Price Fluctuations: The Case of Japan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1333-1370.
    25. Benton F. Massell, 1969. "Price Stabilization and Welfare," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 83(2), pages 284-298.
    26. Gibson, Rajna & Murawski, Carsten, 2013. "Margining in derivatives markets and the stability of the banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1119-1132.
    27. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
    28. Raymond M. Leuthold, 1983. "Commercial use and speculative measures of the livestock commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(2), pages 113-135, June.
    29. Acharya, Viral V. & Lochstoer, Lars A. & Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 441-465.
    30. Goldberg, Lawrence G. & Hachey, George Jr., 1992. "Price volatility and margin requirements in foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 328-339, August.
    31. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Kim, Dongcheol, 1995. "Margin Requirements, Price Fluctuations, and Market Participation in Metal Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 659-671, August.
    32. Raymond P. H. Fishe & Lawrence G. Goldberg & Thomas F. Gosnell & Sujata Sinha, 1990. "Margin requirements in futures markets: Their relationship to price volatility," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(5), pages 541-554, October.
    33. Lester G. Telser, 1981. "Margins and futures contracts," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 225-253, June.
    34. Chatrath, Arjun & Adrangi, Bahram & Allender, Mary, 2001. "The impact of margins in futures markets: evidence from the gold and silver markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-294.
    35. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    36. Florackis, Chris & Giorgioni, Gianluigi & Kostakis, Alexandros & Milas, Costas, 2014. "On stock market illiquidity and real-time GDP growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 210-229.
    37. Heflin, Frank & Shaw, Kenneth W., 2000. "Blockholder Ownership and Market Liquidity," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(4), pages 621-633, December.
    38. Xiong, Wei, 2001. "Convergence trading with wealth effects: an amplification mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 247-292, November.
    39. Abdur R. Chowdhury, 1991. "Futures market efficiency: Evidence from cointegration tests," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 577-589, October.
    40. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the present crisis and managing the leverage cycle," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug), pages 101-131.
    41. Stephen Figlewski, 1984. "Margins and market integrity: Margin setting for stock index futures and options," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(3), pages 385-416, September.
    42. Chordia, Tarun & Roll, Richard & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2008. "Liquidity and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 249-268, February.
    43. Adrian, Tobias & Shin, Hyun Song, 2010. "Liquidity and leverage," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 418-437, July.
    44. Franklin Allen & Elena Carletti, 2008. "The role of liquidity in financial crises," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 379-412.
    45. Florackis, Chris & Gregoriou, Andros & Kostakis, Alexandros, 2011. "Trading frequency and asset pricing on the London Stock Exchange: Evidence from a new price impact ratio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3335-3350.
    46. Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Speculation on Hedging Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    47. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
    48. Kandice H. Kahl & Roger D. Rutz & Jeanne C. Sinquefield, 1985. "The economics of performance margins in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 103-112, March.
    49. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "The Leverage Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009, Volume 24, pages 1-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Marta Szymanowska & Frans Roon & Theo Nijman & Rob Goorbergh, 2014. "An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 453-482, February.
    51. Datar, Vinay T. & Y. Naik, Narayan & Radcliffe, Robert, 1998. "Liquidity and stock returns: An alternative test," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 203-219, August.
    52. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    53. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Dongcheol Kim, 1996. "Price volatility and futures margins," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 81-111, February.
    54. John Geanakoplos, 2010. "Solving the Present Crisis and Managing the Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1751, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Foley, Sean & Kwan, Amy & Philip, Richard & Ødegaard, Bernt Arne, 2022. "Contagious margin calls: How COVID-19 threatened global stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    2. Xiao, Jihong & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, speculation, and energy futures returns: Evidence from a quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    3. Sungjun Cho & Chanaka N. Ganepola & Ian Garrett, 2019. "An analysis of illiquidity in commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(8), pages 962-984, August.
    4. Carol Alexander & Jun Deng & Bin Zou, 2021. "Hedging with Bitcoin Futures: The Effect of Liquidation Loss Aversion and Aggressive Trading," Papers 2101.01261, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    5. Alexander, Carol & Deng, Jun & Zou, Bin, 2023. "Hedging with automatic liquidation and leverage selection on bitcoin futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 478-493.
    6. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    7. Zhiyong Cheng & Jun Deng & Tianyi Wang & Mei Yu, 2021. "Liquidation, leverage and optimal margin in bitcoin futures markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(47), pages 5415-5428, October.
    8. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Spillovers beyond the variance: Exploring the higher order risk linkages between commodity markets and global financial markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    9. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas & Sumawong, Anannit, 2019. "A parsimonious parametric model for generating margin requirements for futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 31-43.
    10. Lauter, Tobias & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "Measuring commodity market quality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "The effects of margin changes on commodity futures markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 129-152.
    2. Fostel, Ana & Geanakoplos, John, 2012. "Why does bad news increase volatility and decrease leverage?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 501-525.
    3. Brunnermeier, Markus K. & Oehmke, Martin, 2013. "Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1221-1288, Elsevier.
    4. Tomas Breach & Thomas B. King, 2018. "Securities Financing and Asset Markets: New Evidence," Working Paper Series WP-2018-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Ana Fostel & John Geanakoplos, 2012. "Tranching, CDS, and Asset Prices: How Financial Innovation Can Cause Bubbles and Crashes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 190-225, January.
    6. Alexander, Carol & Kaeck, Andreas & Sumawong, Anannit, 2019. "A parsimonious parametric model for generating margin requirements for futures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 31-43.
    7. Corradin, Stefano & Heider, Florian & Hoerova, Marie, 2017. "On collateral: implications for financial stability and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2107, European Central Bank.
    8. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Wang, F. Albert, 2022. "Double leverage cycle, interest rate, and financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    10. , 2016. "Funding Illiquidity," Working Papers on Finance 1601, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Sep 2019.
    11. Istiak, Khandokar & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Risk, uncertainty, and leverage," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 257-273.
    12. Schoenmaker, Dirk & Wierts, Peter, 2015. "Regulating the financial cycle: An integrated approach with a leverage ratio," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 70-72.
    13. Lewis, Kurt F. & Longstaff, Francis A. & Petrasek, Lubomir, 2021. "Asset mispricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 981-1006.
    14. F. Wang & Ting Zhang, 2014. "Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 256-276, August.
    15. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    16. Nina Karnaukh & Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2015. "Understanding FX Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(11), pages 3073-3108.
    17. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2013. "Dynamic Leverage Asset Pricing," Staff Reports 625, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    18. Craig W. Holden & Stacey Jacobsen & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2014. "The Empirical Analysis of Liquidity," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 8(4), pages 263-365, December.
    19. M. Iqbal Ahmed & Quazi Fidia Farah, 2021. "Adjustment dynamics between broker–dealer leverage and stock market: a threshold cointegration analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 121-144, July.
    20. Ames, Matthew & Bagnarosa, Guillaume & Matsui, Tomoko & Peters, Gareth W. & Shevchenko, Pavel V., 2020. "Which risk factors drive oil futures price curves?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodities; Hedging; Market liquidity; Margins; Speculators;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:22:y:2016:i:c:p:129-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.