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Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since the Crash?

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  • Paul Kupiec

Abstract

This study assesses the state of the policy debate that surrounds the Federal regulation of margin requirements. A relatively comprehensive review of the literature finds on undisputed evidence that supports the hypothesis that margin requirements can be used to control stock return volatility and correspondingly little evidence that suggests that margin-related leverage is an important underlying source of ¶excess¶ volatility. The evidence does not support the hypothesis that there is a stable inverse relationship between the level of Regulation T margin requirements and stock returns volatility nor does it support the hypothesis that the leverage advantage in equity derivative products is a source of additional returns volatility in the stock market.
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  • Paul Kupiec, 1998. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since the Crash?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 231-255, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:13:y:1998:i:3:p:231-255
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1008080227190
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    2. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2002. "Bubbles in experimental asset markets: Irrational exuberance no more," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Brumm, Johannes & Grill, Michael & Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2015. "Margin regulation and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 54-68.
    4. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2016. "The effects of margin changes on commodity futures markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 129-152.
    5. Michael A. Goldstein & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, "undated". "Liquidity Provision during Circuit Breakers and Extreme Market Movements," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 01-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    6. Michael Grill & Karl Schmedders & Felix Kubler & Johannes Brumm, 2012. "Margin Requirements and Asset Prices," 2012 Meeting Papers 533, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Nidhi Aggarwal & Susan Thomas, 2019. "When stock futures dominate price discovery," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 263-278, March.
    8. Rashid, Abdul & Ahmad, Shabbir, 2008. "Badla Financing, Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case Study of Karachi Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 30487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Wen-Chung Guo & Frank Wang & Ho-Mou Wu, 2011. "Financial leverage and market volatility with diverse beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 337-364, June.
    10. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "Margin, Short Selling, and Lotteries in Experimental Asset Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 419-436, October.
    11. Douglas J. Elliott & Greg Feldberg & Andreas Lehnert, 2013. "The history of cyclical macroprudential policy in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Xiong, Wei, 2001. "Convergence trading with wealth effects: an amplification mechanism in financial markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 247-292, November.
    13. Shinhua Liu, 2008. "Index Futures and Predictability of the Underlying Stocks’ Returns: The Case of the Nikkei 225," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 77-91, August.
    14. Domian, Dale L. & Racine, Marie D., 2006. "An empirical analysis of margin debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 151-163.
    15. Raymond Knott & Marco Polenghi, 2006. "Assessing central counterparty margin coverage on futures contracts using GARCH models," Bank of England working papers 287, Bank of England.
    16. Shi, Wei & Irwin, Scott H., 2006. "What Happens when Peter can't Pay Paul: Risk Management at Futures Exchange Clearinghouses," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21087, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    17. Goldstein, Michael A. & Kavajecz, Kenneth A., 2004. "Trading strategies during circuit breakers and extreme market movements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 301-333, June.
    18. Zhang, Wei David & Seyedian, Mojtaba & Li, Jinliang, 2005. "Margin borrowing, stock returns, and market volatility: Evidence from margin credit balance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 273-278, May.

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