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Animal spirits, margin requirements, and stock price volatility

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Abstract

A simple overlapping generations model is used to characterize the effects of initial margin requirements in the volatility of risky asset prices. Investors are assumed to exhibit heterogenous preferences for risk-bearing, the distribution of which evolves stochastically across generations. This framework is used to show that imposing a binding initial marginal requirement may either increase or decrease stock price volatility, depending upon the microeconomic structure behind fluctuations in economywide average risk-bearing propensity. The ambiguous effect on volatility similarly arises when the source of heterogeneity is noise trader beliefs. Copyright 1991 by American Finance Association.
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  • Paul H. Kupiec & Steven A. Sharpe, 1990. "Animal spirits, margin requirements, and stock price volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 127, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:127
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    Cited by:

    1. Ilhyock Shim & Goetz von Peter, 2007. "Distress selling and asset market feedback," BIS Working Papers 229, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Paul Kupiec, 1998. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since the Crash?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 231-255, June.
    3. Lillyn L. Teh & Werner F. M. de Bondt, 1997. "Herding Behavior and Stock Returns: An Exploratory Investigation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(II), pages 293-324, June.
    4. Wen-Chung Guo & Frank Wang & Ho-Mou Wu, 2011. "Financial leverage and market volatility with diverse beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 337-364, June.
    5. Christian Weller, 2002. "Policy on the margin: Evaluating the impact of margin debt requirements on stock valuations," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(1), pages 1-15, March.
    6. Middleton, Elliott, 1996. "Adaptation level and 'animal spirits'," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 479-498, August.
    7. Hui Ying Sng & Yang Zhang & Huanhuan Zheng, 2020. "Margin trade, short sales and financial stability," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 15(3), pages 673-702, July.
    8. Chen, Chao & Jeng, Jau-Lian, 1996. "The impact of price limits on foreign currency futures' price volatility and market efficiency," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 13-25.
    9. Brumm, Johannes & Grill, Michael & Kubler, Felix & Schmedders, Karl, 2015. "Margin regulation and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 54-68.
    10. Hsin, Chin-Wen & Guo, Wen-Chung & Tseng, Seng-Su & Luo, Wen-Chih, 2003. "The impact of speculative trading on stock return volatility: the evidence from Taiwan," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 243-270, December.
    11. Sheng Guo, 2014. "Margin requirements and portfolio optimization: A geometric approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 15(3), pages 191-204, June.
    12. Filiz Eryilmaz, 2015. "Modelling Stock Market Volatility: The Case Of Bist-100," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 5, pages 37-47, October.
    13. Alan Guoming Huang & Eric Hughson & J. Chris Leach, 2016. "Generational Asset Pricing, Equity Puzzles, and Cyclicality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 52-71, October.
    14. Albert Menkveld & Emiliano Pagnotta & Marius Andrei Zoican, 2016. "Does Central Clearing Affect Price Stability? Evidence from Nordic Equity Markets," Working Papers hal-01253702, HAL.
    15. William Schwert, G., 2002. "Stock volatility in the new millennium: how wacky is Nasdaq?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 3-26, January.
    16. Peter Fortune, 2001. "Margin lending and stock market volatility," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 3-25.

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    Keywords

    Margins (Security trading); Stock - Prices;

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