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Herding Behavior and Stock Returns: An Exploratory Investigation

  • Lillyn L. Teh
  • Werner F. M. de Bondt
Registered author(s):

    We collect trading and ownership statistics for U.S. stocks between 1970 and 1989 and we study the cross-section of returns. In rational and frictionless markets, equity returns should not depend on asset turnover nor should they depend on owner identity. Yet, with market imperfections, crowd behavior may affect returns. We examine two types of herding: (i) conventional investing, and (ii) trading for non-informational reasons. Incomplete information models predict that conventional stocks command higher prices. Noise trader models predict that shares that are traded for non-informational reasons are more risky and sell for lower prices. We find evidence that supports both predictions, even if we control for beta, firm size, and the book-to-market ratio.

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    Article provided by Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES) in its journal Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics.

    Volume (Year): 133 (1997)
    Issue (Month): II (June)
    Pages: 293-324

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    Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:1997-ii-11
    Contact details of provider: Postal: c/o SNB/BNS, Börsenstrasse 15, PO Box 2800, CH-8022 Zürich
    Phone: +41 (0)44 631 32 34
    Fax: +41 (0)44 631 39 01
    Web page: http://www.sjes.ch
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    1. Del Guercio, Diane, 1996. "The distorting effect of the prudent-man laws on institutional equity investments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 31-62, January.
    2. Pagano, Marco, 1986. "Endogenous Market Thinness and Stock Price Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    6. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
    7. Hardouvelis, G.A., 1988. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, And The Transitory Component Of Stock Prices," Papers fb-_88-38, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
    8. Trueman, Brett, 1994. "Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 97-124.
    9. Hsieh, David A & Miller, Merton H, 1990. " Margin Regulation and Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, March.
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    14. Shiller, 021Robert J. & Pound, John, 1989. "Survey evidence on diffusion of interest and information among investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 47-66, August.
    15. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
    16. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990. " Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
    17. Scharfstein, David. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1988. "Herd behavior and investment," Working papers WP 2062-88., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    18. Gregory R. Duffee, 1992. "Trading volume and return reversals," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 192, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
    20. Brennan, Michael J., 1993. "Agency and Asset Pricing," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt53k014sd, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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