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Herding Behavior and Stock Returns: An Exploratory Investigation

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  • Lillyn L. Teh
  • Werner F. M. de Bondt

Abstract

We collect trading and ownership statistics for U.S. stocks between 1970 and 1989 and we study the cross-section of returns. In rational and frictionless markets, equity returns should not depend on asset turnover nor should they depend on owner identity. Yet, with market imperfections, crowd behavior may affect returns. We examine two types of herding: (i) conventional investing, and (ii) trading for non-informational reasons. Incomplete information models predict that conventional stocks command higher prices. Noise trader models predict that shares that are traded for non-informational reasons are more risky and sell for lower prices. We find evidence that supports both predictions, even if we control for beta, firm size, and the book-to-market ratio.

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  • Lillyn L. Teh & Werner F. M. de Bondt, 1997. "Herding Behavior and Stock Returns: An Exploratory Investigation," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 133(II), pages 293-324, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:ses:arsjes:1997-ii-11
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    2. De Bondt, Werner F. M., 1998. "A portrait of the individual investor," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 831-844, May.
    3. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Tsalavoutas, Ioannis, 2016. "Investor mood, herding and the Ramadan effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(S), pages 23-38.
    4. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Ferreira, Mario Pedro Leite, 2013. "Institutional industry herding: Intentional or spurious?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 192-214.
    5. Papapostolou, Nikos C. & Pouliasis, Panos K. & Kyriakou, Ioannis, 2017. "Herd behavior in the drybulk market: an empirical analysis of the decision to invest in new and retire existing fleet capacity," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 36-51.
    6. Bastías, Jaime & Ruiz, José L., 2022. "Equity fire sales and herding behavior in pension funds," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "The Interaction Between the Aggregate Behaviour of Technical Trading Systems and Stock Price Dynamics," WIFO Working Papers 290, WIFO.
    8. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Goyal, Abhinav & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2015. "Herding dynamics in exchange groups: Evidence from Euronext," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 228-244.
    9. Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Öztürkkal, Belma, 2020. "Does mood affect institutional herding?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    10. Guney, Yilmaz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Komba, Gabriel, 2017. "Herding in frontier markets: Evidence from African stock exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 152-175.
    11. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Leite Ferreira, Mario Pedro & Verousis, Thanos, 2017. "Intraday herding on a cross-border exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 25-36.
    12. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Regulatory mood-congruence and herding: Evidence from cannabis stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 842-864.
    13. Justyna Przychodzen & Fernando Gómez-Bezares & Wojciech Przychodzen & Mikel Larreina, 2016. "ESG Issues among Fund Managers—Factors and Motives," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-19, October.
    14. Economou, Fotini & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Kallinterakis, Vasileios & Yordanov, Nikolay, 2015. "Do fund managers herd in frontier markets — and why?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 76-87.
    15. Po-Jung Chen, 2016. "The Effects of Analysts’ Herding on Traders: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 23(2), pages 203-227, June.
    16. Cheng, Tingting & Xing, Shuo & Yao, Wenying, 2022. "An examination of herding behaviour of the Chinese mutual funds: A time-varying perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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