IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Financial Leverage and Market Volatility with Diverse Beliefs

  • Wen-Chung Guo


  • Frank Yong Wang
  • Ho-Mou Wu

We develop a model of asset trading with financial leverage in an economy with a continuum of investors. The investors are assumed to have diverse and rational beliefs in the sense of being compatible with observed data. We show that an increase in leverage ratio may cause the stock price to rise in the current period because it increases the demand of optimistic investors through a leverage effect, and will result in pyramiding and depyramiding phenomena for stock prices in the subsequent period. Our results also suggest that an increase in leverage ratio also results in an increase in price volatility as well, however, under certain conditions. Price changes from pyramiding effect are also negatively associated with margin requirements. Price changes from depyramiding effect, however, may not be affected when margin calls are not triggered. Furthermore, the influences of dispersion of opinion, investment funds, and investors anticipations are also examined.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 22887.

in new window

Date of creation: Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22887
Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Harrison, J Michael & Kreps, David M, 1978. "Speculative Investor Behavior in a Stock Market with Heterogeneous Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 323-36, May.
  2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
  3. Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1990. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and the Transitory Components of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 736-62, September.
  4. Paul H. Kupiec, 1997. "Margin Requirements, Volatility, and Market Integrity: What Have We Learned Since The Crash?," FMG Special Papers sp97, Financial Markets Group.
  5. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-68, September.
  6. Kurz, Mordecai, 1994. "On Rational Belief Equilibria," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(6), pages 859-76, October.
  7. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, 2011. "Diverse beliefs and time variability of risk premia," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 293-335, June.
  8. Stephen Morris, . "Speculative Investor Behavior and Learning," Penn CARESS Working Papers d12f7936881423171f6589501, Penn Economics Department.
  9. Gikas A. Hardouvelis & Panayiotis Theodossiou, 2002. "The Asymmetric Relation Between Initial Margin Requirements and Stock Market Volatility Across Bull and Bear Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(5), pages 1525-1560.
  10. Leach, John, 1991. "Rational Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 131-44, February.
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  12. Paul Kupiec & Steve Sharpe, 1989. "Animal spirits, margin requirements, and stock price volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 91, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Feiger, George, 1976. "What Is Speculation?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 677-87, November.
  14. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Peristiani, Stavros, 1992. "Margin Requirements, Speculative Trading, and Stock Price Fluctuations: The Case of Japan," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1333-70, November.
  15. repec:cep:stitep:/1984/92 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Daniele Coen-Pirani, 2000. "Margin Requirements and Equilibrium Asset Prices," GSIA Working Papers 2001-E5, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  17. Teoh, Siew Hong & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1991. "Nondisclosure and Adverse Disclosure as Signals of Firm Value," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 283-313.
  18. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1993. "Differences of Opinion Make a Horse Race," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 473-506.
  19. Seguin, Paul J., 1990. "Stock volatility and margin trading," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 101-121, August.
  20. Kohn, Meir, 1978. "Competitive Speculation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1061-76, September.
  21. Hart, Oliver D & Kreps, David M, 1986. "Price Destabilizing Speculation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 927-52, October.
  22. John Geanakoplos, 2009. "The Leverage Cycle," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1715, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  23. Jose A. Scheinkman & Wei Xiong, 2003. "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1183-1219, December.
  24. Thomas Gale Moore, 1966. "Stock Market Margin Requirements," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 158.
  25. Varian, Hal R, 1985. " Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 309-17, March.
  26. Ho-Mou Wu & Wen-Chung Guo, 2004. "Asset price volatility and trading volume with rational beliefs," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 795-829, May.
  27. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1975. "Speculation and Equilibrium: Information, Risk, and Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 519-42, November.
  28. Biais, Bruno & Gollier, Christian, 1997. "Trade Credit and Credit Rationing," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 903-37.
  29. John Geanakoplos & Ana Fostel, 2008. "Leverage Cycles and the Anxious Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1211-44, September.
  30. Goldberg, Michael A, 1985. "The Relevance of Margin Regulations: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 521-27, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eab:financ:22887. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shiro Armstrong)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.