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A Welfare Criterion for Models with Distorted Beliefs

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  • Markus K. Brunnermeier
  • Alp Simsek
  • Wei Xiong

Abstract

This paper proposes a welfare criterion for economies in which agents have heterogeneously distorted beliefs. Instead of taking a stand on whose belief is correct, our criterion asserts that an allocation is belief-neutral efficient (inefficient) if it is efficient (inefficient) under any convex combination of agents' beliefs. While this criterion gives an incomplete ranking of social allocations, it can identify positive- and negative-sum speculation driven by conflicting beliefs in a broad range of economic environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus K. Brunnermeier & Alp Simsek & Wei Xiong, 2014. "A Welfare Criterion for Models with Distorted Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 20691, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20691
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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