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A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy

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  • Ricardo J. Caballero
  • Alp Simsek

Abstract

When investors are unwilling to hold the economy’s risk, a decline in the interest rate in- creases the Sharpe ratio of the market and equilibrates the risk markets. If the interest rate is constrained from below, risk markets are instead equilibrated via a decline in asset prices. How- ever, the latter drags down aggregate demand, which further drags prices down, and so on. If investors are pessimistic about the recovery, the economy becomes highly susceptible to down- ward spirals due to dynamic feedbacks between asset prices, aggregate demand, and growth. In this context, belief disagreements generate highly destabilizing speculation that motivates macroprudential policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2017. "A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 23614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23614
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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