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Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest

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Why are interest rates so low in the Unites States? We find that they are low primarily because the premium for safety and liquidity has increased since the late 1990s, and to a lesser extent because economic growth has slowed. We reach this conclusion using two complementary perspectives: a flexible time-series model of trends in Treasury and corporate yields, inflation, and long-term survey expectations, and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. We discuss the implications of this finding for the natural rate of interest.

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  • Del Negro, Marco & Giannone, Domenico & Giannoni, Marc & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2017. "Safety, liquidity, and the natural rate of interest," Staff Reports 812, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:812
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    Cited by:

    1. Carolin Pflueger & Emil Siriwardane & Adi Sunderam, 2018. "A Measure of Risk Appetite for the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 24529, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Doh, Taeyoung, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    3. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with a Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Working Papers e120, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    4. Kurt F. Lewis & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2017. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest : Alternative Specifications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    6. Stefano Neri & Andrea Gerali, 2017. "Natural rates across the Atlantic," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. repec:kuk:journl:v:51:y:2018:i:1:p:93-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Julian Kozlowski & Laura Veldkamp & Venky Venkateswaran, 2018. "The Tail that Keeps the Riskless Rate Low," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2018, volume 33 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:zbw:svrwjg:201718 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," BIS Working Papers 720, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2018. "On real interest rates, tariff policy, exchange rates and the ZLB," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-032/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan (S.J.) Koopman, 2018. "Unobserved Components with Stochastic Volatility in U.S. Inflation: Estimation and Signal Extraction," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-027/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Bassetto, Marco & Cui, Wei, 2018. "The fiscal theory of the price level in a world of low interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 5-22.
    14. Michael T. Kiley & John M. Roberts, 2017. "Monetary Policy in a Low Interest Rate World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 317-396.
    15. Lansing, Kevin J., 2017. "Endogenous Regime Switching Near the Zero Lower Bound," Working Paper Series 2017-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    16. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo, 2017. "Mildly Explosive Dynamics in U.S. Fixed Income Markets," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    17. Ricardo J. Caballero & Alp Simsek, 2017. "A Risk-centric Model of Demand Recessions and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 23614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Pablo Aguilar & Jesús Vázquez, 2018. "Term structure and real-time learning," Working Papers 1803, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of interest; r*; DSGE models; liquidity; safety; convenience yield;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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