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Secular Stagnation: The Long View

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  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, averse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," NBER Working Papers 20836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20836
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    1. repec:ucp:bknber:9780226304557 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2006. "The Dynamic Effects of Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 413-451, June.
    3. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1, December.
    4. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, "undated". "Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," Working Papers 18, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
    5. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, "undated". "Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," Working Papers 18, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
    7. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index to "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Robert J. Gordon, 1990. "The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord90-1, December.
    9. Brigitte Desroches & Michael Francis, 2006. "Global Savings, Investment, and World Real Interest Rates," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2006(Winter), pages 3-17.
    10. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Introduction to "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 3-14, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Francesco Grigoli & Alexander Herman & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2014. "World Saving," IMF Working Papers 14/204, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lewis, Frank D, 1983. "Fertility and Savings in the United States: 1830-1900," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(5), pages 825-840, October.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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