IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cmh/wpaper/18.html

Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study

Author

Abstract

Does the concept of General Purpose Technologies help explain periods of faster and slower productivity advance in economies? The paper develops a new comparative data set on the usage of electricity in the manufacturing sectors of the USA, Britain, France, Germany and Japan and proceeds to evaluate the hypothesis of a productivity bonus as postulated by many existing GPT models. Using the case of the diffusion of electrical power in the early twentieth century this paper shows that there was no generalized productivity boost from electrical power diffusion as postulated by many existing GPT models. The productivity gains from this GPT varied widely across economies and industries, suggesting that the power of GPTs to predict aggregate or sectoral growth is limited.

Suggested Citation

  • Cristiano Andrea Ristuccia & Solomos Solomou, "undated". "Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? Electrical power as a case study," Working Papers 18, Department of Economic and Social History at the University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cmh:wpaper:18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econsoc.hist.cam.ac.uk/docs/CWPESHnumber18March2014.pdf
    File Function: None.
    Download Restriction: None.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-227, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olena Ivus & Matthew Boland, 2015. "The employment and wage impact of broadband deployment in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1803-1830, December.
    2. Shakouri, Hamed & Pandey, Shikhar & Rahmatian, Farnoosh & Paaso, Esa A., 2023. "Does the increased electricity consumption (provided by capacity expansion and/or reliability improvement) cause economic growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. Mario COCCIA, 2017. "The Fishbone diagram to identify, systematize and analyze the sources of general purpose technologies," Journal of Social and Administrative Sciences, KSP Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 291-303, December.
    4. Liu, Yong & Du, Jun-liang & Yang, Jin-bi & Qian, Wu-yong & Forrest, Jeffrey Yi-Lin, 2019. "An incentive mechanism for general purpose technologies R&D based on the concept of super-conflict equilibrium: Empirical evidence from nano industrial technology in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 185-197.
    5. Ding, Jeffrey, 2022. "Techno-industrial Policy for New Infrastructure: China’s Approach to Promoting Artificial Intelligence as a General Purpose Technology," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt1sb844ws, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    6. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2020. "Is The Uk Productivity Slowdown Unprecedented?," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 251, pages 47-53, February.
    7. Johannes Treu, 2023. "The Chance of FinTech to be a New General-Purpose Technology," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(11), pages 1-22, November.
    8. Crafts, Nicholas, 2020. "British Relative Economic Decline in the Aftermath of German Unification," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 501, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    9. Kemnitz, Alexander & Knoblach, Michael, 2020. "Endogenous sigma-augmenting technological change: An R&D-based approach," CEPIE Working Papers 02/20, Technische Universität Dresden, Center of Public and International Economics (CEPIE).
    10. Cantner, Uwe & Vannuccini, Simone, 2021. "Pervasive technologies and industrial linkages: Modeling acquired purposes," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 386-399.
    11. Coccia, Mario, 2018. "A Theory of the General Causes of Long Waves: War, General Purpose Technologies, and Economic Change," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 287-295.
    12. Nils Grashof & Alexander Kopka, 2023. "Artificial intelligence and radical innovation: an opportunity for all companies?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 771-797, August.
    13. Coccia, Mario, 2015. "General sources of general purpose technologies in complex societies: Theory of global leadership-driven innovation, warfare and human development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-226.
    14. Treu, Johannes, 2022. "FinTech, General Purpose Technology und Wohlfahrt," IU Discussion Papers - Business & Management 5 (Juni 2022), IU International University of Applied Sciences.
    15. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    16. Sergio Petralia, 2020. "GPTs and Growth: Evidence on the Technological Adoption of Electrical & Electronic Technologies in the 1920s," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 2033, Utrecht University, Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Group Economic Geography, revised Aug 2020.
    17. Zhang, Yi & Wu, Mengjia & Miao, Wen & Huang, Lu & Lu, Jie, 2021. "Bi-layer network analytics: A methodology for characterizing emerging general-purpose technologies," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    18. Barry Eichengreen, 2015. "Secular Stagnation: The Long View," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 66-70, May.
    19. Clifford Bekar & Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2018. "General purpose technologies in theory, application and controversy: a review," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(5), pages 1005-1033, December.
    20. Jeffrey Ding & Allan Dafoe, 2021. "Engines of Power: Electricity, AI, and General-Purpose Military Transformations," Papers 2106.04338, arXiv.org.
    21. Nils Grashof & Alexander Kopka, 2023. "Widening or closing the gap? The relationship between artificial intelligence, firm-level productivity and regional clusters," Bremen Papers on Economics & Innovation 2304, University of Bremen, Faculty of Business Studies and Economics.
    22. Mario Coccia, 2017. "General purpose technologies in dynamic systems: visual representation and analyses of complex drivers," IRCrES Working Paper 201705, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY.
    23. Enrico Santarelli & Jacopo Staccioli & Marco Vivarelli, 2023. "Automation and related technologies: a mapping of the new knowledge base," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 779-813, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    2. Froyen, Richard T & Waud, Roger N, 1988. "Real Business Cycles and the Lucas Paradigm," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(2), pages 183-201, April.
    3. Olivier Basdevant & Nils Björksten & Özer Karagedikli, 2004. "Estimating a time varying neutral real interest rate for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP 2004/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    4. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
    5. Calice, Giovanni & Mio, RongHui & Štěrba, Filip & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Short-term determinants of the idiosyncratic sovereign risk premium: A regime-dependent analysis for European credit default swaps," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 174-189.
    6. Jacky Fayolle & Alexandre Mathis, 1994. "Structure des taux d'intérêt et mouvements cycliques des économies américaine et française," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 49(1), pages 125-148.
    7. Mihnea Constantinescu & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "Unemployment or Credit: Who Holds The Potential? Results From a Small-Open Economy," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 4, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Jun Ma & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "An Unobserved Components Model that Yields Business and Medium-Run Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1351-1373, October.
    9. Gian Luigi Mazzi & Frédéric Reynès & Matthieu Lemoine & Paola Veroni, 2008. "Real Time Estimation of Potential Output and Output Gap for the Euro-Area : Comparing Production Function with Unobserved Components and SVAR Approaches," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-01027422, HAL.
    10. Myroslav Pidkuyko, 2014. "Dynamics of Consumption and Dividends over the Business Cycle," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp522, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    11. Omar H. M. N. Bashar, 2015. "The Trickle‐down Effect of the Mining Boom in Australia: Fact or Myth?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 94-108, June.
    12. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2003:i:3:p:1-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco-Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2014. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 62-78.
    14. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    15. Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
    16. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Trani, Tommaso, 2019. "The cyclical structure of the UK inflation rate: 1210–2016," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 182-185.
    17. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    18. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    19. Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms & Irma Hindrayanto, 2009. "Periodic Unobserved Cycles in Seasonal Time Series with an Application to US Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 683-713, October.
    20. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, February.
    21. Liang, Kuo-Yuan & Yen, Chen-Hui, 2014. "Dissecting the cycles: An intermarket investigation and its implications to portfolio reallocation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 39-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • N60 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cmh:wpaper:18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Guillaume Proffit or Alexis Litvine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dhcamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.